Trump claims China is paying tariffs ahead of his summit with Xi

Canada Eyes Asia Amid US Trade Frictions [Native YouTube auto-generated English captions; publisher: Bloomberg Television; speaker labels reviewed separately] Donald Trump [00:00:00-00:00:01 (1 sec)] We're going to have a lot of different Donald Trump [00:00:01-00:00:03 (2 sec)] deals here. We intend we're not just Donald Trump [00:00:03-00:00:05 (2 sec)] doing it for our health. We're going to Donald Trump [00:00:05-00:00:07 (2 sec)] have some pretty important meetings. You Donald Trump [00:00:07-00:00:09 (2 sec)] know, China's paying us a lot of Donald Trump [00:00:09-00:00:12 (3 sec)] tariffs. Unidentified speaker [00:00:12-00:00:14 (2 sec)] A confident message from President Trump Unidentified speaker [00:00:14-00:00:15 (1 sec)] ahead of his summit with Chinese Unidentified speaker [00:00:15-00:00:17 (2 sec)] President [music] Xiinping. But while Unidentified speaker [00:00:17-00:00:19 (2 sec)] Washington and Beijing prepare for a new Unidentified speaker [00:00:19-00:00:21 (2 sec)] round of trade talks, other countries Unidentified speaker [00:00:21-00:00:22 (1 sec)] are already [music] repositioning for Unidentified speaker [00:00:22-00:00:24 (2 sec)] what comes next. Live from Sydney, I'm Unidentified speaker [00:00:24-00:00:26 (2 sec)] Paul Allen and this is Insight, where we Unidentified speaker [00:00:26-00:00:28 (2 sec)] dive deeper into the stories that matter Unidentified speaker [00:00:28-00:00:29 (1 sec)] [music] with crucial context and sharp Unidentified speaker [00:00:29-00:00:32 (3 sec)] analysis. Well, Canada's international Unidentified speaker [00:00:32-00:00:34 (2 sec)] trade minister, Mininda Sidu, who's Unidentified speaker [00:00:34-00:00:35 (1 sec)] going to join us in a moment to talk Unidentified speaker [00:00:35-00:00:37 (2 sec)] trade tensions with the US [music] and Unidentified speaker [00:00:37-00:00:40 (3 sec)] Canada's pivot towards Asia. We'll also Unidentified speaker [00:00:40-00:00:42 (2 sec)] bring you our exclusive interview with Unidentified speaker [00:00:42-00:00:44 (2 sec)] Vietnamese [music] President Tolan, who Unidentified speaker [00:00:44-00:00:46 (2 sec)] says the country is very close to a Unidentified speaker [00:00:46-00:00:48 (2 sec)] trade deal with the US. We'll also hear Unidentified speaker [00:00:48-00:00:50 (2 sec)] from US trade representative Jameson Unidentified speaker [00:00:50-00:00:52 (2 sec)] [music] Greer on efforts to extend the Unidentified speaker [00:00:52-00:00:55 (3 sec)] US China trade truce. Meanwhile, Asian Unidentified speaker [00:00:55-00:00:57 (2 sec)] stocks are climbing for a fifth straight Unidentified speaker [00:00:57-00:00:59 (2 sec)] session [music] powered by technology Unidentified speaker [00:00:59-00:01:01 (2 sec)] shares. Taiwanese stocks touching a Unidentified speaker [00:01:01-00:01:02 (1 sec)] record on renewed [music] optimism Unidentified speaker [00:01:02-00:01:05 (3 sec)] around AIdriven chip demand. We'll get a Unidentified speaker [00:01:05-00:01:07 (2 sec)] take on market strategy from ESR [music] Unidentified speaker [00:01:07-00:01:10 (3 sec)] investments. Also ahead, Bloomberg's Unidentified speaker [00:01:10-00:01:12 (2 sec)] Manica Dashi going to join us from Unidentified speaker [00:01:12-00:01:17 (5 sec)] Mumbai. Dominica Unidentified speaker [00:01:17-00:01:19 (2 sec)] >> Paul India is introducing new fees on Unidentified speaker [00:01:19-00:01:21 (2 sec)] larger merchant digital transactions Unidentified speaker [00:01:21-00:01:23 (2 sec)] marking a major shift for the world's Unidentified speaker [00:01:23-00:01:26 (3 sec)] biggest realtime network [music] UPI. Unidentified speaker [00:01:26-00:01:29 (3 sec)] We're live at the JP Morgan summit here Unidentified speaker [00:01:29-00:01:31 (2 sec)] in Mumbai with the [music] bank's global Unidentified speaker [00:01:31-00:01:34 (3 sec)] co-head of payments Max Newton on the Unidentified speaker [00:01:34-00:01:37 (3 sec)] implications for costs adoption and Unidentified speaker [00:01:37-00:01:54 (17 sec)] future [music] payments growth. Unidentified speaker [00:01:54-00:01:56 (2 sec)] Well, let's get to our top story today. Unidentified speaker [00:01:56-00:01:58 (2 sec)] Chinese and US officials continue to Unidentified speaker [00:01:58-00:02:00 (2 sec)] advance trade negotiations ahead of this Unidentified speaker [00:02:00-00:02:02 (2 sec)] week's presidential summit in Washington Unidentified speaker [00:02:02-00:02:05 (3 sec)] between Donald Trump and Xiinping. Two Unidentified speaker [00:02:05-00:02:07 (2 sec)] sides held a second round of trade talks Unidentified speaker [00:02:07-00:02:10 (3 sec)] in New York focusing on AI and Unidentified speaker [00:02:10-00:02:12 (2 sec)] investments. The early meetings have Unidentified speaker [00:02:12-00:02:13 (1 sec)] remained upbeat, aiming to deliver on Unidentified speaker [00:02:13-00:02:16 (3 sec)] terms discussed by lead negotiators. Unidentified speaker [00:02:16-00:02:18 (2 sec)] Despite this, US trade representative Unidentified speaker [00:02:18-00:02:20 (2 sec)] Jameson Greer has sounded a note of Unidentified speaker [00:02:20-00:02:22 (2 sec)] caution, telling Bloomberg that Unidentified speaker [00:02:22-00:02:24 (2 sec)] divisions remain on extending the tariff Unidentified speaker [00:02:24-00:02:26 (2 sec)] truce. Unidentified speaker [00:02:26-00:02:27 (1 sec)] >> We will continue to have discussions Unidentified speaker [00:02:27-00:02:29 (2 sec)] about that. Uh our sense is we aren't Unidentified speaker [00:02:29-00:02:32 (3 sec)] going to have the extension today. Uh Unidentified speaker [00:02:32-00:02:33 (1 sec)] but again, we still have some time Unidentified speaker [00:02:33-00:02:35 (2 sec)] before that happens. So my expectation Unidentified speaker [00:02:35-00:02:37 (2 sec)] is we'll continue talking and I think Unidentified speaker [00:02:37-00:02:39 (2 sec)] both sides want it. I think a lot of it Unidentified speaker [00:02:39-00:02:41 (2 sec)] is because uh China has created this Unidentified speaker [00:02:41-00:02:43 (2 sec)] uncertainty. Uh they've limited rare Unidentified speaker [00:02:43-00:02:45 (2 sec)] earth exports. They've controlled them. Unidentified speaker [00:02:45-00:02:48 (3 sec)] We monitor them and I think just saying Unidentified speaker [00:02:48-00:02:49 (1 sec)] you know we have full trust and full Unidentified speaker [00:02:49-00:02:51 (2 sec)] confidence in each other at this point I Unidentified speaker [00:02:51-00:02:54 (3 sec)] think is a little naive. Uh we have a Unidentified speaker [00:02:54-00:02:55 (1 sec)] good relationship. President Xi and Unidentified speaker [00:02:55-00:02:57 (2 sec)] President Trump have a good relationship Unidentified speaker [00:02:57-00:02:59 (2 sec)] but we need these uh extensions or other Unidentified speaker [00:02:59-00:03:01 (2 sec)] things to go incrementally to make sure Unidentified speaker [00:03:01-00:03:04 (3 sec)] that there's compliance. Unidentified speaker [00:03:04-00:03:06 (2 sec)] Well, let's go to Washington NAR and Unidentified speaker [00:03:06-00:03:08 (2 sec)] chief North Asia correspondent Steven Unidentified speaker [00:03:08-00:03:10 (2 sec)] Angel. So, Steve, what more do we know Unidentified speaker [00:03:10-00:03:12 (2 sec)] about US China trade talks and how Unidentified speaker [00:03:12-00:03:16 (4 sec)] they're progressing? Unidentified speaker [00:03:16-00:03:18 (2 sec)] >> Well, obviously we had heard after the Unidentified speaker [00:03:18-00:03:20 (2 sec)] first day when which was led by the two Unidentified speaker [00:03:20-00:03:23 (3 sec)] main negotiators Scott Besson and Hulong Unidentified speaker [00:03:23-00:03:24 (1 sec)] that there would be a second day and Unidentified speaker [00:03:24-00:03:27 (3 sec)] that was today in New York City. uh we Unidentified speaker [00:03:27-00:03:29 (2 sec)] had heard actually from the top Unidentified speaker [00:03:29-00:03:32 (3 sec)] negotiator uh Li Chong that he was going Unidentified speaker [00:03:32-00:03:34 (2 sec)] to be a part of that. So again they were Unidentified speaker [00:03:34-00:03:35 (1 sec)] trying to build on the momentum that Unidentified speaker [00:03:35-00:03:38 (3 sec)] they got uh on Sunday and that was Unidentified speaker [00:03:38-00:03:40 (2 sec)] basically the assessment from both sides Unidentified speaker [00:03:40-00:03:43 (3 sec)] is that it went pretty well. Uh very Unidentified speaker [00:03:43-00:03:45 (2 sec)] successful is how Scott Bessant uh you Unidentified speaker [00:03:45-00:03:48 (3 sec)] know assessed day one and also we heard Unidentified speaker [00:03:48-00:03:50 (2 sec)] from Lie Chong Gong saying essentially Unidentified speaker [00:03:50-00:03:52 (2 sec)] it was a positive development. He said Unidentified speaker [00:03:52-00:03:55 (3 sec)] it was not bad the first day. So it it Unidentified speaker [00:03:55-00:03:57 (2 sec)] looks as though they're laying, you Unidentified speaker [00:03:57-00:03:59 (2 sec)] know, the groundwork for attainable Unidentified speaker [00:03:59-00:04:01 (2 sec)] deliverables for the two leaders come Unidentified speaker [00:04:01-00:04:02 (1 sec)] Thursday when they're going to have now Unidentified speaker [00:04:02-00:04:04 (2 sec)] that it's officially confirmed by the Unidentified speaker [00:04:04-00:04:06 (2 sec)] Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing Unidentified speaker [00:04:06-00:04:08 (2 sec)] that they're going to indeed uh have Unidentified speaker [00:04:08-00:04:11 (3 sec)] Xiinping arrive here I believe Wednesday Unidentified speaker [00:04:11-00:04:13 (2 sec)] and then have that state visit to the Unidentified speaker [00:04:13-00:04:15 (2 sec)] White House and uh dinner there at the Unidentified speaker [00:04:15-00:04:17 (2 sec)] White House on Thursday and then some Unidentified speaker [00:04:17-00:04:20 (3 sec)] other activities on Friday. So uh it is Unidentified speaker [00:04:20-00:04:22 (2 sec)] going ahead. Now what can be achieved? Unidentified speaker [00:04:22-00:04:24 (2 sec)] We just heard from Jameson Greer there Unidentified speaker [00:04:24-00:04:27 (3 sec)] about the talks also centered on whether Unidentified speaker [00:04:27-00:04:30 (3 sec)] there can be an extension of the trade Unidentified speaker [00:04:30-00:04:32 (2 sec)] truce which was signed in Busousan at Unidentified speaker [00:04:32-00:04:34 (2 sec)] APEC last year in November. It Unidentified speaker [00:04:34-00:04:36 (2 sec)] technically expires around November Unidentified speaker [00:04:36-00:04:39 (3 sec)] 10th. So there's still nearly two more Unidentified speaker [00:04:39-00:04:42 (3 sec)] months for some sort of negotiations to Unidentified speaker [00:04:42-00:04:44 (2 sec)] go on how far Unidentified speaker [00:04:44-00:04:48 (4 sec)] that extension if at all will go. We Unidentified speaker [00:04:48-00:04:50 (2 sec)] heard from Jameson Greer say it could be Unidentified speaker [00:04:50-00:04:53 (3 sec)] 3 to six months. That's what they're Unidentified speaker [00:04:53-00:04:55 (2 sec)] aiming for. They want to have Unidentified speaker [00:04:55-00:04:57 (2 sec)] incremental periods so they can Unidentified speaker [00:04:57-00:05:00 (3 sec)] basically hold China to its commitments Unidentified speaker [00:05:00-00:05:01 (1 sec)] with a little bit more pressure. Whereas Unidentified speaker [00:05:01-00:05:04 (3 sec)] we hearing as well from the Chinese side Unidentified speaker [00:05:04-00:05:06 (2 sec)] uh through back channels that the Unidentified speaker [00:05:06-00:05:08 (2 sec)] Chinese would prefer a much longer Unidentified speaker [00:05:08-00:05:10 (2 sec)] extension so they have some certainty on Unidentified speaker [00:05:10-00:05:12 (2 sec)] where they stand in their economic Unidentified speaker [00:05:12-00:05:15 (3 sec)] relations with the United States. Unidentified speaker [00:05:15-00:05:17 (2 sec)] Well, Jameson Greer also talked to Unidentified speaker [00:05:17-00:05:19 (2 sec)] Bloomberg about rising trade tensions Unidentified speaker [00:05:19-00:05:21 (2 sec)] between the US and Canada. What did he Unidentified speaker [00:05:21-00:05:25 (4 sec)] have to say? Unidentified speaker [00:05:25-00:05:27 (2 sec)] >> Well, we all know about the difficulties Unidentified speaker [00:05:27-00:05:30 (3 sec)] right now between Canada and the United Unidentified speaker [00:05:30-00:05:32 (2 sec)] States and the the tariffs and Unidentified speaker [00:05:32-00:05:35 (3 sec)] reciprocal actions by Canada and also of Unidentified speaker [00:05:35-00:05:38 (3 sec)] course Mark Carney u also cozing up a Unidentified speaker [00:05:38-00:05:40 (2 sec)] bit with the EU. We heard Ursula Unidentified speaker [00:05:40-00:05:44 (4 sec)] Vanderion essentially uh have an have a Unidentified speaker [00:05:44-00:05:47 (3 sec)] I guess you could say an outreach to the Unidentified speaker [00:05:47-00:05:50 (3 sec)] Canadians to be uh more have a better Unidentified speaker [00:05:50-00:05:53 (3 sec)] alliance if you will with the European Unidentified speaker [00:05:53-00:05:55 (2 sec)] Union. Uh this is what Jameson Greer, Unidentified speaker [00:05:55-00:05:57 (2 sec)] the US trade representative Unidentified speaker [00:05:57-00:05:59 (2 sec)] representative had to say in that Unidentified speaker [00:05:59-00:06:02 (3 sec)] interview with Bloomberg about why Unidentified speaker [00:06:02-00:06:04 (2 sec)] Canada should prioritize trade with the Unidentified speaker [00:06:04-00:06:06 (2 sec)] United States, not the EU. Unidentified speaker [00:06:06-00:06:09 (3 sec)] The reality is economically Unidentified speaker [00:06:09-00:06:11 (2 sec)] it makes sense for the Canadians to have Unidentified speaker [00:06:11-00:06:13 (2 sec)] more um interaction with with the US. Unidentified speaker [00:06:13-00:06:15 (2 sec)] This is where the growth is. This is Unidentified speaker [00:06:15-00:06:16 (1 sec)] where the consumption is. It's not in Unidentified speaker [00:06:16-00:06:22 (6 sec)] Europe. It's not elsewhere. Unidentified speaker [00:06:22-00:06:24 (2 sec)] >> So again, uh that interview with Jameson Unidentified speaker [00:06:24-00:06:26 (2 sec)] Greer, while it focused largely on the Unidentified speaker [00:06:26-00:06:29 (3 sec)] talks with China, there's no doubt other Unidentified speaker [00:06:29-00:06:31 (2 sec)] trade issues, including with its closest Unidentified speaker [00:06:31-00:06:33 (2 sec)] uh neighbor and big trading partner, Unidentified speaker [00:06:33-00:06:36 (3 sec)] Canada. Guys, Unidentified speaker [00:06:36-00:06:38 (2 sec)] All right, Bloomberg's chief North Asia Unidentified speaker [00:06:38-00:06:39 (1 sec)] correspondent Steven Angel there in Unidentified speaker [00:06:39-00:06:42 (3 sec)] Washington. Well, meanwhile, Canada's Unidentified speaker [00:06:42-00:06:43 (1 sec)] international trade minister is back in Unidentified speaker [00:06:43-00:06:46 (3 sec)] Asia. Maninda Sidu meet met with his Unidentified speaker [00:06:46-00:06:48 (2 sec)] Indian counterpart late last week to Unidentified speaker [00:06:48-00:06:50 (2 sec)] reaffirm both countries commitment to a Unidentified speaker [00:06:50-00:06:52 (2 sec)] free trade agreement and he's now in the Unidentified speaker [00:06:52-00:06:54 (2 sec)] Philippines to advance negotiations on Unidentified speaker [00:06:54-00:06:57 (3 sec)] further deals where he joins us now from Unidentified speaker [00:06:57-00:06:59 (2 sec)] Manila. Uh, Minister, thank you so much Unidentified speaker [00:06:59-00:07:01 (2 sec)] for your time today. And we just heard Unidentified speaker [00:07:01-00:07:03 (2 sec)] from Jameson Greer saying there that, Unidentified speaker [00:07:03-00:07:05 (2 sec)] you know, Canada shouldn't focus on the Unidentified speaker [00:07:05-00:07:07 (2 sec)] EU, it should focus on the US, better Unidentified speaker [00:07:07-00:07:10 (3 sec)] opportunities. Well, you're joining us Unidentified speaker [00:07:10-00:07:13 (3 sec)] from Asia today. Is this Canada's trade Unidentified speaker [00:07:13-00:07:14 (1 sec)] policy at the moment? Just diversify as Unidentified speaker [00:07:14-00:07:17 (3 sec)] aggressively as policy as possible and Unidentified speaker [00:07:17-00:07:21 (4 sec)] and move away from the US. Unidentified speaker [00:07:21-00:07:22 (1 sec)] >> Well, Paul, thank you so much for having Unidentified speaker [00:07:22-00:07:24 (2 sec)] me on your show. Uh, I'm joined you from Unidentified speaker [00:07:24-00:07:26 (2 sec)] Manila, as you know. Um you know plan A Unidentified speaker [00:07:26-00:07:27 (1 sec)] from the very beginning that Prime Unidentified speaker [00:07:27-00:07:30 (3 sec)] Minister Carney set since last year was Unidentified speaker [00:07:30-00:07:32 (2 sec)] about diversification is about Unidentified speaker [00:07:32-00:07:34 (2 sec)] diversification. We we know that our Unidentified speaker [00:07:34-00:07:37 (3 sec)] exposure to one particular market uh uh Unidentified speaker [00:07:37-00:07:39 (2 sec)] was very high and business have asked us Unidentified speaker [00:07:39-00:07:41 (2 sec)] to help them lean into new markets Unidentified speaker [00:07:41-00:07:42 (1 sec)] around the world and that's what we've Unidentified speaker [00:07:42-00:07:44 (2 sec)] been up to since last year. Uh we've Unidentified speaker [00:07:44-00:07:46 (2 sec)] signed multiple free trade agreements Unidentified speaker [00:07:46-00:07:48 (2 sec)] with countries all around the world Unidentified speaker [00:07:48-00:07:50 (2 sec)] including the UAE, Indonesia, Ecuador, Unidentified speaker [00:07:50-00:07:51 (1 sec)] the European Union under safe Unidentified speaker [00:07:51-00:07:53 (2 sec)] procurement opportunities. and I just Unidentified speaker [00:07:53-00:07:56 (3 sec)] came uh from uh India as you mentioned Unidentified speaker [00:07:56-00:07:58 (2 sec)] uh round four we just completed with our Unidentified speaker [00:07:58-00:08:00 (2 sec)] counterparts there and we're we're Unidentified speaker [00:08:00-00:08:02 (2 sec)] making uh great headway in fact we're Unidentified speaker [00:08:02-00:08:03 (1 sec)] going to be concluding in the coming Unidentified speaker [00:08:03-00:08:06 (3 sec)] months with India it's a market uh 1.4 4 Unidentified speaker [00:08:06-00:08:08 (2 sec)] billion consumers. Currently, our 15 Unidentified speaker [00:08:08-00:08:10 (2 sec)] free trade agreements give us access to Unidentified speaker [00:08:10-00:08:12 (2 sec)] about 1.5 billion consumers, and we're Unidentified speaker [00:08:12-00:08:14 (2 sec)] going to double that uh in terms of Unidentified speaker [00:08:14-00:08:16 (2 sec)] access to markets around the world. And Unidentified speaker [00:08:16-00:08:18 (2 sec)] so, here in Azan, again, great Unidentified speaker [00:08:18-00:08:20 (2 sec)] conversations for our Azan Canada free Unidentified speaker [00:08:20-00:08:22 (2 sec)] trade agreement negotiations. We've done Unidentified speaker [00:08:22-00:08:25 (3 sec)] multiple rounds. We're accelerating that Unidentified speaker [00:08:25-00:08:26 (1 sec)] uh and we're going to be coming to a Unidentified speaker [00:08:26-00:08:28 (2 sec)] conclusion uh in the coming uh coming Unidentified speaker [00:08:28-00:08:30 (2 sec)] weeks. Unidentified speaker [00:08:30-00:08:32 (2 sec)] Well, of course, you can't overlook the Unidentified speaker [00:08:32-00:08:34 (2 sec)] the size and importance of the US market Unidentified speaker [00:08:34-00:08:36 (2 sec)] to Canada. To what degree can these Unidentified speaker [00:08:36-00:08:39 (3 sec)] other deals fill the void left by the Unidentified speaker [00:08:39-00:08:43 (4 sec)] current dispute? Unidentified speaker [00:08:43-00:08:45 (2 sec)] >> I think it's important to to realize um Unidentified speaker [00:08:45-00:08:47 (2 sec)] you know what companies want us to do. Unidentified speaker [00:08:47-00:08:50 (3 sec)] But if you look at our exposure to the Unidentified speaker [00:08:50-00:08:52 (2 sec)] US market, when we formed office, uh Unidentified speaker [00:08:52-00:08:56 (4 sec)] trade with the US was around 75 76%. Uh Unidentified speaker [00:08:56-00:08:57 (1 sec)] the numbers that I received a few weeks Unidentified speaker [00:08:57-00:09:00 (3 sec)] ago was about 66% of exposure to the US Unidentified speaker [00:09:00-00:09:02 (2 sec)] and that's the lowest it's been in 40 Unidentified speaker [00:09:02-00:09:04 (2 sec)] years. I wouldn't say it's about Unidentified speaker [00:09:04-00:09:05 (1 sec)] replacing one market in particular. It's Unidentified speaker [00:09:05-00:09:07 (2 sec)] about adding to that and giving our Unidentified speaker [00:09:07-00:09:10 (3 sec)] companies more options. Uh as you can Unidentified speaker [00:09:10-00:09:11 (1 sec)] understand and as your viewers can Unidentified speaker [00:09:11-00:09:13 (2 sec)] appreciate when you have one customer Unidentified speaker [00:09:13-00:09:15 (2 sec)] buying your product that customer will Unidentified speaker [00:09:15-00:09:17 (2 sec)] set the product uh set the price and so Unidentified speaker [00:09:17-00:09:19 (2 sec)] I think it's very very important that we Unidentified speaker [00:09:19-00:09:21 (2 sec)] give Canadian industries Canadian Unidentified speaker [00:09:21-00:09:23 (2 sec)] businesses more options to sell to more Unidentified speaker [00:09:23-00:09:25 (2 sec)] markets around the world. Then the focus Unidentified speaker [00:09:25-00:09:26 (1 sec)] if you look at what we're what we're Unidentified speaker [00:09:26-00:09:29 (3 sec)] doing uh through our supply chains is Unidentified speaker [00:09:29-00:09:31 (2 sec)] energy uh is on food security is on Unidentified speaker [00:09:31-00:09:33 (2 sec)] other things that we can do in terms of Unidentified speaker [00:09:33-00:09:34 (1 sec)] critical minerals uh the world is Unidentified speaker [00:09:34-00:09:37 (3 sec)] looking to Canada uh as you know uh Unidentified speaker [00:09:37-00:09:39 (2 sec)] trust is being thrown around but Canada Unidentified speaker [00:09:39-00:09:41 (2 sec)] is is a place where many partners around Unidentified speaker [00:09:41-00:09:44 (3 sec)] the world trust uh we don't sign our Unidentified speaker [00:09:44-00:09:46 (2 sec)] contracts using a pencil we we sign Unidentified speaker [00:09:46-00:09:48 (2 sec)] using pens and we abide by contra Unidentified speaker [00:09:48-00:09:50 (2 sec)] contract obligations and so this is why Unidentified speaker [00:09:50-00:09:52 (2 sec)] countries around the world including Unidentified speaker [00:09:52-00:09:53 (1 sec)] here in Asia are looking to Canada to Unidentified speaker [00:09:53-00:09:55 (2 sec)] secure more energy to secure more Unidentified speaker [00:09:55-00:09:57 (2 sec)] critical minerals uh but of course do Unidentified speaker [00:09:57-00:10:00 (3 sec)] more in technology and food security. Unidentified speaker [00:10:00-00:10:02 (2 sec)] >> Well in the context of that I mean you Unidentified speaker [00:10:02-00:10:04 (2 sec)] were in India last week uh India Unidentified speaker [00:10:04-00:10:05 (1 sec)] obviously feeling a lot of pressure on Unidentified speaker [00:10:05-00:10:07 (2 sec)] the energy front from the war in Iran Unidentified speaker [00:10:07-00:10:11 (4 sec)] from uh US pressure on and sanctions on Unidentified speaker [00:10:11-00:10:13 (2 sec)] Russian crude exports. Can you tell us a Unidentified speaker [00:10:13-00:10:15 (2 sec)] little bit about what you're seeing in Unidentified speaker [00:10:15-00:10:17 (2 sec)] terms of companies competing for Unidentified speaker [00:10:17-00:10:21 (4 sec)] Canadian crude? Unidentified speaker [00:10:21-00:10:23 (2 sec)] >> Yeah, absolutely. the the calls that I'm Unidentified speaker [00:10:23-00:10:24 (1 sec)] getting from partners around the world Unidentified speaker [00:10:24-00:10:25 (1 sec)] are saying, you know, we need more Unidentified speaker [00:10:25-00:10:27 (2 sec)] energy because of what's happening uh Unidentified speaker [00:10:27-00:10:29 (2 sec)] what's already happened in Ukraine and Unidentified speaker [00:10:29-00:10:30 (1 sec)] what's happening right now in Ukraine Unidentified speaker [00:10:30-00:10:31 (1 sec)] and what's happening in the straight of Unidentified speaker [00:10:31-00:10:34 (3 sec)] Hormuz. The impacts on energy prices is Unidentified speaker [00:10:34-00:10:37 (3 sec)] very real. Uh we're feeling it in Canada Unidentified speaker [00:10:37-00:10:39 (2 sec)] as well. Uh and but we all are also Unidentified speaker [00:10:39-00:10:41 (2 sec)] relying on our partners uh shipping them Unidentified speaker [00:10:41-00:10:43 (2 sec)] more crude, shipping them more LG. Uh in Unidentified speaker [00:10:43-00:10:45 (2 sec)] fact, Japan just received their first Unidentified speaker [00:10:45-00:10:47 (2 sec)] crude shipment uh late last month. Uh Unidentified speaker [00:10:47-00:10:49 (2 sec)] Indonesia just received their first Unidentified speaker [00:10:49-00:10:51 (2 sec)] crude shipment as well. Uh and the Port Unidentified speaker [00:10:51-00:10:52 (1 sec)] of Vancouver, our largest port in Unidentified speaker [00:10:52-00:10:54 (2 sec)] Canada, is showing the results. Uh Unidentified speaker [00:10:54-00:10:56 (2 sec)] energy shipments are up. Uh our Unidentified speaker [00:10:56-00:10:58 (2 sec)] agriculture shipments are up. We're Unidentified speaker [00:10:58-00:10:59 (1 sec)] going to continue being there. Last Unidentified speaker [00:10:59-00:11:01 (2 sec)] week, as you know, Prime Minister Carney Unidentified speaker [00:11:01-00:11:04 (3 sec)] hosted our first ever investment summit. Unidentified speaker [00:11:04-00:11:06 (2 sec)] Uh we had 300 of the largest asset Unidentified speaker [00:11:06-00:11:08 (2 sec)] managers that collectively managed close Unidentified speaker [00:11:08-00:11:11 (3 sec)] to $120 trillion of assets around the Unidentified speaker [00:11:11-00:11:13 (2 sec)] world. They were in Toronto. We hosted Unidentified speaker [00:11:13-00:11:15 (2 sec)] them in Toronto. They want to invest Unidentified speaker [00:11:15-00:11:17 (2 sec)] more in Canada. In fact, if you look at Unidentified speaker [00:11:17-00:11:19 (2 sec)] the projects that we proposed, many of Unidentified speaker [00:11:19-00:11:21 (2 sec)] those projects are energy mining Unidentified speaker [00:11:21-00:11:23 (2 sec)] projects. Uh, and many of them are Unidentified speaker [00:11:23-00:11:24 (1 sec)] export oriented to markets in the Unidentified speaker [00:11:24-00:11:26 (2 sec)] European Union, uh, markets in the Unidentified speaker [00:11:26-00:11:28 (2 sec)] Indoacific. And so that's very Unidentified speaker [00:11:28-00:11:29 (1 sec)] important. We can't do it alone. It's Unidentified speaker [00:11:29-00:11:31 (2 sec)] going to take partnership. And many of Unidentified speaker [00:11:31-00:11:32 (1 sec)] our partners around the world are Unidentified speaker [00:11:32-00:11:34 (2 sec)] looking to Canada to invest more, to do Unidentified speaker [00:11:34-00:11:36 (2 sec)] more together. Unidentified speaker [00:11:36-00:11:38 (2 sec)] >> Yeah. The Indian commerce and industry Unidentified speaker [00:11:38-00:11:40 (2 sec)] minister says that free trade talks with Unidentified speaker [00:11:40-00:11:43 (3 sec)] Canada have been expedited. uh is it Unidentified speaker [00:11:43-00:11:45 (2 sec)] this energy story that's providing the Unidentified speaker [00:11:45-00:11:47 (2 sec)] catalyst for that or or is it more Unidentified speaker [00:11:47-00:11:50 (3 sec)] nuanced than that? Unidentified speaker [00:11:50-00:11:52 (2 sec)] >> Look, I think uh when you look at when Unidentified speaker [00:11:52-00:11:54 (2 sec)] you're negotiating with Canada, there's Unidentified speaker [00:11:54-00:11:57 (3 sec)] a matter many complimentarities. Uh not Unidentified speaker [00:11:57-00:11:58 (1 sec)] much competition in terms of industries, Unidentified speaker [00:11:58-00:12:00 (2 sec)] it's complimentarities. It's how we Unidentified speaker [00:12:00-00:12:02 (2 sec)] approach our conversations. Uh but of Unidentified speaker [00:12:02-00:12:04 (2 sec)] India, you mentioned India. India does Unidentified speaker [00:12:04-00:12:06 (2 sec)] need more energy. They're growing uh at Unidentified speaker [00:12:06-00:12:08 (2 sec)] an exponential rate uh roughly 7% Unidentified speaker [00:12:08-00:12:10 (2 sec)] year-over-year. Uh I met with the energy Unidentified speaker [00:12:10-00:12:12 (2 sec)] minister not too long ago, Minister Unidentified speaker [00:12:12-00:12:14 (2 sec)] Hardep Singhuri on energy. Uh they're Unidentified speaker [00:12:14-00:12:16 (2 sec)] looking at Canada for for nuclear Unidentified speaker [00:12:16-00:12:17 (1 sec)] capacity. They're looking at Canada for Unidentified speaker [00:12:17-00:12:20 (3 sec)] LNG and others. Uh but of course that's Unidentified speaker [00:12:20-00:12:22 (2 sec)] a big part of that conversation. Um you Unidentified speaker [00:12:22-00:12:23 (1 sec)] know fertilizer is also part of that Unidentified speaker [00:12:23-00:12:25 (2 sec)] conversation. As you mentioned some of Unidentified speaker [00:12:25-00:12:26 (1 sec)] the supply chain constraints that are Unidentified speaker [00:12:26-00:12:27 (1 sec)] happening in the Middle East are Unidentified speaker [00:12:27-00:12:29 (2 sec)] impacting fertilizer prices as well. And Unidentified speaker [00:12:29-00:12:32 (3 sec)] so it's a it's a conversation that we're Unidentified speaker [00:12:32-00:12:34 (2 sec)] having with India. It's moving along Unidentified speaker [00:12:34-00:12:36 (2 sec)] really well. Uh and we hope to conclude Unidentified speaker [00:12:36-00:12:38 (2 sec)] in the coming months. Unidentified speaker [00:12:38-00:12:40 (2 sec)] >> Yeah. Yeah. Does Canada's role as one of Unidentified speaker [00:12:40-00:12:41 (1 sec)] the world's leading potsh producers give Unidentified speaker [00:12:41-00:12:43 (2 sec)] you some leverage when it comes to Unidentified speaker [00:12:43-00:12:44 (1 sec)] talking about agriculture with India? Unidentified speaker [00:12:44-00:12:46 (2 sec)] Because of course, you know, India Unidentified speaker [00:12:46-00:12:47 (1 sec)] signed a free trade deal with the Unidentified speaker [00:12:47-00:12:49 (2 sec)] world's largest dairy exporter in New Unidentified speaker [00:12:49-00:12:52 (3 sec)] Zealand, which left agriculture to one Unidentified speaker [00:12:52-00:12:54 (2 sec)] side. Do you feel you might have to do Unidentified speaker [00:12:54-00:12:56 (2 sec)] the same thing here or or is there a bit Unidentified speaker [00:12:56-00:12:58 (2 sec)] of wiggle room considering your role in Unidentified speaker [00:12:58-00:13:02 (4 sec)] in global fertilizer trade? Unidentified speaker [00:13:02-00:13:04 (2 sec)] >> Yeah, I mean, you hit the nail on the Unidentified speaker [00:13:04-00:13:06 (2 sec)] head. uh podash. If you look at our pod Unidentified speaker [00:13:06-00:13:07 (1 sec)] ash industry, we're very proud of our Unidentified speaker [00:13:07-00:13:09 (2 sec)] podash industry. In fact, we supply Unidentified speaker [00:13:09-00:13:12 (3 sec)] roughly 40% of uh the global uh supply Unidentified speaker [00:13:12-00:13:14 (2 sec)] chain with Canadian pod ash uh Unidentified speaker [00:13:14-00:13:16 (2 sec)] year-over-year growth, about 9% in Unidentified speaker [00:13:16-00:13:18 (2 sec)] podash. And so, we're very well Unidentified speaker [00:13:18-00:13:20 (2 sec)] positioned to support farmers all around Unidentified speaker [00:13:20-00:13:22 (2 sec)] the world with Canadian podash. But part Unidentified speaker [00:13:22-00:13:23 (1 sec)] of that conversation is how can we bring Unidentified speaker [00:13:23-00:13:26 (3 sec)] duty rates down for podach uh in India Unidentified speaker [00:13:26-00:13:28 (2 sec)] uh duty rates can go anywhere from 7 to Unidentified speaker [00:13:28-00:13:30 (2 sec)] 10% in that uh in that sector. And so we Unidentified speaker [00:13:30-00:13:32 (2 sec)] want to make sure that we make podash Unidentified speaker [00:13:32-00:13:34 (2 sec)] more affordable for farmers around the Unidentified speaker [00:13:34-00:13:36 (2 sec)] world. And part of that is how do we Unidentified speaker [00:13:36-00:13:37 (1 sec)] bring down the cost of duties and Unidentified speaker [00:13:37-00:13:40 (3 sec)] tariffs uh through our negotiations with Unidentified speaker [00:13:40-00:13:42 (2 sec)] free trade partners around the world. Unidentified speaker [00:13:42-00:13:44 (2 sec)] >> Well, Canada's also been tightening up Unidentified speaker [00:13:44-00:13:46 (2 sec)] its migration policy. What does that Unidentified speaker [00:13:46-00:13:49 (3 sec)] mean in terms of access for Indian Unidentified speaker [00:13:49-00:13:54 (5 sec)] professionals and students to Canada? Unidentified speaker [00:13:54-00:13:56 (2 sec)] >> What I would say is there's a lot of Unidentified speaker [00:13:56-00:13:58 (2 sec)] benefit. I mean, we've got a talent Unidentified speaker [00:13:58-00:13:59 (1 sec)] attraction strategy out there to attract Unidentified speaker [00:13:59-00:14:01 (2 sec)] some of the top researchers around the Unidentified speaker [00:14:01-00:14:02 (1 sec)] world. We put over a billion dollars Unidentified speaker [00:14:02-00:14:04 (2 sec)] into that fund. Uh, and we want to work Unidentified speaker [00:14:04-00:14:06 (2 sec)] with countries around the world. Uh, we Unidentified speaker [00:14:06-00:14:07 (1 sec)] can't grow alone. We need to grow Unidentified speaker [00:14:07-00:14:10 (3 sec)] together. Uh, and we have countries and Unidentified speaker [00:14:10-00:14:11 (1 sec)] partners all around the world looking to Unidentified speaker [00:14:11-00:14:12 (1 sec)] support Canada in research and Unidentified speaker [00:14:12-00:14:14 (2 sec)] capabilities. If you just look at China, Unidentified speaker [00:14:14-00:14:16 (2 sec)] what they have in terms of battery Unidentified speaker [00:14:16-00:14:18 (2 sec)] storage capabilities, uh, they they've Unidentified speaker [00:14:18-00:14:20 (2 sec)] got exceptional technologies and we're Unidentified speaker [00:14:20-00:14:21 (1 sec)] willing to work with China in that in Unidentified speaker [00:14:21-00:14:22 (1 sec)] that sense. And it's the same way with Unidentified speaker [00:14:22-00:14:24 (2 sec)] India and partners around the world. Uh Unidentified speaker [00:14:24-00:14:26 (2 sec)] we welcome top researchers to Canada to Unidentified speaker [00:14:26-00:14:27 (1 sec)] come work with our industries to come Unidentified speaker [00:14:27-00:14:29 (2 sec)] grow with us. Uh and that's kind of the Unidentified speaker [00:14:29-00:14:30 (1 sec)] approach that we're taking with Unidentified speaker [00:14:30-00:14:33 (3 sec)] countries around the world. Unidentified speaker [00:14:33-00:14:34 (1 sec)] >> Well, you're in the Philippines today. Unidentified speaker [00:14:34-00:14:36 (2 sec)] How close are you to signing a free Unidentified speaker [00:14:36-00:14:38 (2 sec)] trade agreement with the Philippines? Unidentified speaker [00:14:38-00:14:39 (1 sec)] And and are there some still some Unidentified speaker [00:14:39-00:14:43 (4 sec)] sticking points to iron out? Unidentified speaker [00:14:43-00:14:45 (2 sec)] >> Yeah. First off, I want to say thank you Unidentified speaker [00:14:45-00:14:47 (2 sec)] to the Philippines hosts. They've been Unidentified speaker [00:14:47-00:14:49 (2 sec)] exceptional chair uh in the Azan Unidentified speaker [00:14:49-00:14:51 (2 sec)] countries. uh they had put Canada down Unidentified speaker [00:14:51-00:14:54 (3 sec)] as a key priority to to wrap up our Azan Unidentified speaker [00:14:54-00:14:56 (2 sec)] Canada free trade agreement this year. Unidentified speaker [00:14:56-00:14:58 (2 sec)] We're on track to do that. Uh hopefully Unidentified speaker [00:14:58-00:15:00 (2 sec)] by next month we'll have more to say. Unidentified speaker [00:15:00-00:15:03 (3 sec)] But also with uh Philippines Canada uh Unidentified speaker [00:15:03-00:15:05 (2 sec)] uh free trade agreement which we Unidentified speaker [00:15:05-00:15:06 (1 sec)] launched last year. I was here with Unidentified speaker [00:15:06-00:15:08 (2 sec)] Prime Minister Carney in Malaysia when Unidentified speaker [00:15:08-00:15:09 (1 sec)] they were the chair where we announced Unidentified speaker [00:15:09-00:15:11 (2 sec)] negotiations. And so it's going really Unidentified speaker [00:15:11-00:15:13 (2 sec)] well. I'm leading my negotiating team. Unidentified speaker [00:15:13-00:15:15 (2 sec)] We just finished a round uh the the a Unidentified speaker [00:15:15-00:15:18 (3 sec)] few weeks ago in Canada and I hope to Unidentified speaker [00:15:18-00:15:20 (2 sec)] conclude that as well at the same time Unidentified speaker [00:15:20-00:15:23 (3 sec)] uh as we do with Aza. Unidentified speaker [00:15:23-00:15:25 (2 sec)] >> Uh Minister, just finally, President Unidentified speaker [00:15:25-00:15:27 (2 sec)] Trump's got a little bit over two years Unidentified speaker [00:15:27-00:15:29 (2 sec)] left on his term. Do you see the US Unidentified speaker [00:15:29-00:15:31 (2 sec)] Canada trading relationship changing Unidentified speaker [00:15:31-00:15:35 (4 sec)] after the end of that term? Unidentified speaker [00:15:35-00:15:37 (2 sec)] >> Look, the the Canada US relationship is Unidentified speaker [00:15:37-00:15:40 (3 sec)] is important uh to businesses and supply Unidentified speaker [00:15:40-00:15:42 (2 sec)] chains. I spent 13 years in the private Unidentified speaker [00:15:42-00:15:43 (1 sec)] sector as an international trade Unidentified speaker [00:15:43-00:15:45 (2 sec)] consultant working with hundreds of Unidentified speaker [00:15:45-00:15:46 (1 sec)] businesses that do business with the US. Unidentified speaker [00:15:46-00:15:48 (2 sec)] And so the supply chains are very very Unidentified speaker [00:15:48-00:15:50 (2 sec)] intertwined. We're going to continue to Unidentified speaker [00:15:50-00:15:51 (1 sec)] have those conversations with our Unidentified speaker [00:15:51-00:15:54 (3 sec)] American counterparts uh and uh see what Unidentified speaker [00:15:54-00:15:55 (1 sec)] we can get for industries. But we've Unidentified speaker [00:15:55-00:15:57 (2 sec)] been very clear since the very beginning Unidentified speaker [00:15:57-00:15:59 (2 sec)] that we were looking for a fair deal Unidentified speaker [00:15:59-00:16:01 (2 sec)] that benefits our industries uh but also Unidentified speaker [00:16:01-00:16:03 (2 sec)] supports workers on both sides of the Unidentified speaker [00:16:03-00:16:04 (1 sec)] border. And we'll continue to engage in Unidentified speaker [00:16:04-00:16:06 (2 sec)] that conversation. But my job as the Unidentified speaker [00:16:06-00:16:07 (1 sec)] international trade minister is to Unidentified speaker [00:16:07-00:16:10 (3 sec)] expand beyond North America to find new Unidentified speaker [00:16:10-00:16:11 (1 sec)] markets and that's what plan A was from Unidentified speaker [00:16:11-00:16:13 (2 sec)] all along. Uh and the numbers speak Unidentified speaker [00:16:13-00:16:15 (2 sec)] volume. Last year our non US exports are Unidentified speaker [00:16:15-00:16:19 (4 sec)] up by 17% to the tune of 33 billion. Unidentified speaker [00:16:19-00:16:20 (1 sec)] That's the highest it's ever been in Unidentified speaker [00:16:20-00:16:21 (1 sec)] close to 40 years. And we need to Unidentified speaker [00:16:21-00:16:24 (3 sec)] continue engaging with customers and uh Unidentified speaker [00:16:24-00:16:27 (3 sec)] partners around the world. Unidentified speaker [00:16:27-00:16:29 (2 sec)] >> All right. Maninda Sudu Canadian Unidentified speaker [00:16:29-00:16:30 (1 sec)] international trade minister. Thank you Unidentified speaker [00:16:30-00:16:33 (3 sec)] so much for your time today. Coming up Unidentified speaker [00:16:33-00:16:35 (2 sec)] as chip stocks rally in Taiwan and South Unidentified speaker [00:16:35-00:16:37 (2 sec)] Korea will take [music] the pulse of the Unidentified speaker [00:16:37-00:16:39 (2 sec)] AI trade. Eastring Investments joins us Unidentified speaker [00:16:39-00:16:41 (2 sec)] with their market outlook next. This is Unidentified speaker [00:16:41-00:17:05 (24 sec)] Bloomberg. Unidentified speaker [00:17:05-00:17:07 (2 sec)] Welcome back. You're watching Insight. Unidentified speaker [00:17:07-00:17:09 (2 sec)] Asia stocks are rallying as Meta's Muse Unidentified speaker [00:17:09-00:17:12 (3 sec)] agent drives AI enthusiasm. Bloomberg's Unidentified speaker [00:17:12-00:17:13 (1 sec)] Averil Hongs in Singapore with a quick Unidentified speaker [00:17:13-00:17:16 (3 sec)] look at markets. Averil. Unidentified speaker [00:17:16-00:17:18 (2 sec)] >> Yeah, Paul. We're seeing Asia stocks in Unidentified speaker [00:17:18-00:17:20 (2 sec)] the green today with the macro Unidentified speaker [00:17:20-00:17:22 (2 sec)] geopolitical backdrop more or less being Unidentified speaker [00:17:22-00:17:24 (2 sec)] kept in check. investors are fully Unidentified speaker [00:17:24-00:17:26 (2 sec)] focused on AI and as you say that Unidentified speaker [00:17:26-00:17:29 (3 sec)] optimism surrounding Meta's news agent Unidentified speaker [00:17:29-00:17:31 (2 sec)] and how it gives the hyperscaler fresh Unidentified speaker [00:17:31-00:17:34 (3 sec)] monetization opportunities. So we're Unidentified speaker [00:17:34-00:17:36 (2 sec)] seeing much of the AI complex in the Unidentified speaker [00:17:36-00:17:38 (2 sec)] region in the green today. Interesting Unidentified speaker [00:17:38-00:17:41 (3 sec)] how even Chinese AI is keeping pace. Unidentified speaker [00:17:41-00:17:43 (2 sec)] We're seeing 10 cent, a hyperscaler. Unidentified speaker [00:17:43-00:17:46 (3 sec)] Maybe the idea of it being able to Unidentified speaker [00:17:46-00:17:49 (3 sec)] replicate Meta success propelled 7% but Unidentified speaker [00:17:49-00:17:51 (2 sec)] Alibaba as well today in the green Unidentified speaker [00:17:51-00:17:54 (3 sec)] hitting session highs at one point after Unidentified speaker [00:17:54-00:17:56 (2 sec)] it unveiled a new AI chip which it Unidentified speaker [00:17:56-00:17:58 (2 sec)] thinks will help it to compete with Unidentified speaker [00:17:58-00:18:00 (2 sec)] Nvidia. It calls it China's most Unidentified speaker [00:18:00-00:18:02 (2 sec)] powerful. Now flip the board. Overnight Unidentified speaker [00:18:02-00:18:05 (3 sec)] we did see thanks to the meta optimism Unidentified speaker [00:18:05-00:18:07 (2 sec)] the compute related names really Unidentified speaker [00:18:07-00:18:09 (2 sec)] rallying hard. We are seeing that Unidentified speaker [00:18:09-00:18:12 (3 sec)] outperformance not from TSMC today in Unidentified speaker [00:18:12-00:18:16 (4 sec)] Taiwan but the other AI related trades Unidentified speaker [00:18:16-00:18:18 (2 sec)] what our colleague Anthony Stevens calls Unidentified speaker [00:18:18-00:18:21 (3 sec)] the rise of the rest that's helping also Unidentified speaker [00:18:21-00:18:24 (3 sec)] to propel the TX to fresh intraday Unidentified speaker [00:18:24-00:18:27 (3 sec)] records and mind you the TX is doing Unidentified speaker [00:18:27-00:18:30 (3 sec)] this without the help of foreign buying Unidentified speaker [00:18:30-00:18:31 (1 sec)] if you're looking month to date we're Unidentified speaker [00:18:31-00:18:33 (2 sec)] still seeing foreign selling so this Unidentified speaker [00:18:33-00:18:35 (2 sec)] idea that maybe we'll see foreign Unidentified speaker [00:18:35-00:18:38 (3 sec)] inflows that could help the TX to Unidentified speaker [00:18:38-00:18:41 (3 sec)] another leg higher. Paul. Unidentified speaker [00:18:41-00:18:42 (1 sec)] >> All right, thanks very much, April. Unidentified speaker [00:18:42-00:18:44 (2 sec)] Let's get some more market insights now Unidentified speaker [00:18:44-00:18:47 (3 sec)] with Nup Gupta, portfolio manager at Unidentified speaker [00:18:47-00:18:49 (2 sec)] Eastpring Investments. And New, I want Unidentified speaker [00:18:49-00:18:51 (2 sec)] to start off with that tech story of the Unidentified speaker [00:18:51-00:18:54 (3 sec)] day. Meta launching a muse, helping fuel Unidentified speaker [00:18:54-00:18:56 (2 sec)] another leg to the tech rally. Do you Unidentified speaker [00:18:56-00:18:58 (2 sec)] feel that sort of thing is justified? Unidentified speaker [00:18:58-00:19:00 (2 sec)] Does it change your view of the AI space Unidentified speaker [00:19:00-00:19:03 (3 sec)] at all? Unidentified speaker [00:19:03-00:19:05 (2 sec)] >> Yeah, good morning, Paul. Um, so we've Unidentified speaker [00:19:05-00:19:07 (2 sec)] been pretty positive on the AI story Unidentified speaker [00:19:07-00:19:09 (2 sec)] since the start of the year and we Unidentified speaker [00:19:09-00:19:11 (2 sec)] believe that it's no longer just a Unidentified speaker [00:19:11-00:19:13 (2 sec)] technology cycle. It is part of the Unidentified speaker [00:19:13-00:19:16 (3 sec)] whole macro cycle and uh what we've seen Unidentified speaker [00:19:16-00:19:18 (2 sec)] in terms of the wobbles during uh part Unidentified speaker [00:19:18-00:19:19 (1 sec)] of the summer was really just Unidentified speaker [00:19:19-00:19:21 (2 sec)] positioning wash out from an investor Unidentified speaker [00:19:21-00:19:23 (2 sec)] standpoint rather than any change in Unidentified speaker [00:19:23-00:19:26 (3 sec)] fundamentals. So for us at Espring um Unidentified speaker [00:19:26-00:19:28 (2 sec)] the AI story is still intact. In fact, Unidentified speaker [00:19:28-00:19:30 (2 sec)] we're just at the beginning of it. And Unidentified speaker [00:19:30-00:19:33 (3 sec)] when you have uh semiconductor and chip Unidentified speaker [00:19:33-00:19:36 (3 sec)] stocks trading at five, six times PE, Unidentified speaker [00:19:36-00:19:38 (2 sec)] especially in the Asian space, uh it's Unidentified speaker [00:19:38-00:19:39 (1 sec)] very compell it's a very compelling Unidentified speaker [00:19:39-00:19:42 (3 sec)] investment. Unidentified speaker [00:19:42-00:19:43 (1 sec)] >> What's your preferred way to allocate Unidentified speaker [00:19:43-00:19:45 (2 sec)] here? Because we've seen a fairly Unidentified speaker [00:19:45-00:19:47 (2 sec)] broad-based rally today. We've got 10 Unidentified speaker [00:19:47-00:19:48 (1 sec)] cent performing pretty strongly, of Unidentified speaker [00:19:48-00:19:50 (2 sec)] course, off the back of uh implications Unidentified speaker [00:19:50-00:19:54 (4 sec)] for gaming. Uh Alibaba announcing a new Unidentified speaker [00:19:54-00:19:56 (2 sec)] AI chip as well. When you look across Unidentified speaker [00:19:56-00:19:58 (2 sec)] the spectrum of options, where do you Unidentified speaker [00:19:58-00:20:01 (3 sec)] prefer to allocate? Unidentified speaker [00:20:01-00:20:03 (2 sec)] I would say from a macro multiasset Unidentified speaker [00:20:03-00:20:06 (3 sec)] standpoint uh we still prefer Korean Unidentified speaker [00:20:06-00:20:09 (3 sec)] equities uh within Asia space because it Unidentified speaker [00:20:09-00:20:11 (2 sec)] has the highest earnings growth and Unidentified speaker [00:20:11-00:20:13 (2 sec)] expected earnings growth uh the lowest Unidentified speaker [00:20:13-00:20:15 (2 sec)] valuation um which makes it the most Unidentified speaker [00:20:15-00:20:17 (2 sec)] attractive macro investment. If we go Unidentified speaker [00:20:17-00:20:19 (2 sec)] down to the stock picking range then you Unidentified speaker [00:20:19-00:20:21 (2 sec)] know definitely specific names within Unidentified speaker [00:20:21-00:20:24 (3 sec)] the China AI space becomes compelling. Unidentified speaker [00:20:24-00:20:26 (2 sec)] uh but for that we think that it needs Unidentified speaker [00:20:26-00:20:28 (2 sec)] to be more micro driven rather than Unidentified speaker [00:20:28-00:20:31 (3 sec)] macro driven. Over in the United States Unidentified speaker [00:20:31-00:20:32 (1 sec)] uh you know we're still positive on the Unidentified speaker [00:20:32-00:20:35 (3 sec)] semiconductor index as overall uh we Unidentified speaker [00:20:35-00:20:37 (2 sec)] think that it's important to diversify Unidentified speaker [00:20:37-00:20:40 (3 sec)] not just away from the chip names uh but Unidentified speaker [00:20:40-00:20:42 (2 sec)] also towards the adopters of AI as well. Unidentified speaker [00:20:42-00:20:44 (2 sec)] Uh so inching towards cyber security Unidentified speaker [00:20:44-00:20:47 (3 sec)] inching towards um the broader theme of Unidentified speaker [00:20:47-00:20:49 (2 sec)] AI is also something that we're looking Unidentified speaker [00:20:49-00:20:51 (2 sec)] at. Unidentified speaker [00:20:51-00:20:52 (1 sec)] >> Yeah, you mentioned Korea there. I mean Unidentified speaker [00:20:52-00:20:54 (2 sec)] the Cosby's had a stall year. It's up Unidentified speaker [00:20:54-00:20:58 (4 sec)] about 66 68% or so, but well off its Unidentified speaker [00:20:58-00:21:00 (2 sec)] highs, of course, and right now sitting Unidentified speaker [00:21:00-00:21:02 (2 sec)] just above 7,100 points. Now, Unidentified speaker [00:21:02-00:21:04 (2 sec)] historically, it's struggled to stay Unidentified speaker [00:21:04-00:21:07 (3 sec)] above that 7,000 level. Do you think Unidentified speaker [00:21:07-00:21:09 (2 sec)] that thresholds finally been crossed? Unidentified speaker [00:21:09-00:21:13 (4 sec)] What are the technicals telling you? Unidentified speaker [00:21:13-00:21:15 (2 sec)] >> So, a lot of the positioning has indeed Unidentified speaker [00:21:15-00:21:17 (2 sec)] been washed out. uh if we look at the Unidentified speaker [00:21:17-00:21:20 (3 sec)] June and July June and July price action Unidentified speaker [00:21:20-00:21:22 (2 sec)] a lot of the investors were selling out Unidentified speaker [00:21:22-00:21:25 (3 sec)] of it you know partly in concern of the Unidentified speaker [00:21:25-00:21:27 (2 sec)] leverage ETF and what does that mean for Unidentified speaker [00:21:27-00:21:28 (1 sec)] the negative gamma and the option Unidentified speaker [00:21:28-00:21:31 (3 sec)] situation uh for the Korean markets uh Unidentified speaker [00:21:31-00:21:33 (2 sec)] at the moment the indicators that we're Unidentified speaker [00:21:33-00:21:34 (1 sec)] tracking is suggesting that a lot of Unidentified speaker [00:21:34-00:21:36 (2 sec)] that has indeed been washed out which Unidentified speaker [00:21:36-00:21:38 (2 sec)] means that positioning is much cleaner Unidentified speaker [00:21:38-00:21:41 (3 sec)] now um yes you've seen a bit of Unidentified speaker [00:21:41-00:21:43 (2 sec)] moderation in 12-month forward earnings Unidentified speaker [00:21:43-00:21:45 (2 sec)] expectations you've come off from say Unidentified speaker [00:21:45-00:21:47 (2 sec)] 80% % earnings growth to 60% earnings Unidentified speaker [00:21:47-00:21:49 (2 sec)] growth but you're still expecting 60% Unidentified speaker [00:21:49-00:21:51 (2 sec)] earnings growth over the next 12 months Unidentified speaker [00:21:51-00:21:54 (3 sec)] and that is still evolving depending on Unidentified speaker [00:21:54-00:21:55 (1 sec)] you know as you get more AI models in Unidentified speaker [00:21:55-00:21:58 (3 sec)] space what exactly will be the demand Unidentified speaker [00:21:58-00:22:00 (2 sec)] for chips uh how much supply can you get Unidentified speaker [00:22:00-00:22:02 (2 sec)] and how quickly can supply come online Unidentified speaker [00:22:02-00:22:04 (2 sec)] right we've heard from a lot of the uh Unidentified speaker [00:22:04-00:22:08 (4 sec)] Korean uh key the the key names from Unidentified speaker [00:22:08-00:22:10 (2 sec)] Korea that they are investing in greater Unidentified speaker [00:22:10-00:22:12 (2 sec)] supply which also gives us the Unidentified speaker [00:22:12-00:22:14 (2 sec)] confidence that they do see visibility Unidentified speaker [00:22:14-00:22:16 (2 sec)] of demand over the next three to four Unidentified speaker [00:22:16-00:22:18 (2 sec)] years. So, we do think that Korea can Unidentified speaker [00:22:18-00:22:20 (2 sec)] definitely break through the all-time Unidentified speaker [00:22:20-00:22:22 (2 sec)] highs. It's just a matter of having a Unidentified speaker [00:22:22-00:22:24 (2 sec)] little bit of tailwind from the macro Unidentified speaker [00:22:24-00:22:26 (2 sec)] standpoint because what we've seen over Unidentified speaker [00:22:26-00:22:28 (2 sec)] the last couple of weeks especially uh Unidentified speaker [00:22:28-00:22:30 (2 sec)] has been that you know bond markets has Unidentified speaker [00:22:30-00:22:33 (3 sec)] obviously been a headwind to overall Unidentified speaker [00:22:33-00:22:35 (2 sec)] risk assets which is weighing on you Unidentified speaker [00:22:35-00:22:38 (3 sec)] know higher beta names including Korea Unidentified speaker [00:22:38-00:22:41 (3 sec)] but once that headwind uh kind of lifts Unidentified speaker [00:22:41-00:22:43 (2 sec)] we think that Korea can definitely push Unidentified speaker [00:22:43-00:22:45 (2 sec)] through. Unidentified speaker [00:22:45-00:22:47 (2 sec)] >> Looper very quickly just 60 seconds I Unidentified speaker [00:22:47-00:22:49 (2 sec)] mean you mentioned a wash out. What's Unidentified speaker [00:22:49-00:22:50 (1 sec)] the chance of another wash out because Unidentified speaker [00:22:50-00:22:51 (1 sec)] there's so much spending happening. Unidentified speaker [00:22:51-00:22:54 (3 sec)] We're seeing pressure on yields as well. Unidentified speaker [00:22:54-00:22:56 (2 sec)] Is there a risk of a correction in the Unidentified speaker [00:22:56-00:22:59 (3 sec)] near future? Just briefly, Unidentified speaker [00:22:59-00:23:01 (2 sec)] >> when we look at the positioning data um Unidentified speaker [00:23:01-00:23:03 (2 sec)] that we are tracking at Espring, they Unidentified speaker [00:23:03-00:23:05 (2 sec)] don't indicate that there would be a Unidentified speaker [00:23:05-00:23:07 (2 sec)] significant wash out. Uh most of the Unidentified speaker [00:23:07-00:23:09 (2 sec)] investors are now either hedged or they Unidentified speaker [00:23:09-00:23:11 (2 sec)] are very light uh ahead of the midterm Unidentified speaker [00:23:11-00:23:14 (3 sec)] elections. So the chances of a wash out Unidentified speaker [00:23:14-00:23:17 (3 sec)] I think at the moment is pretty low. Unidentified speaker [00:23:17-00:23:19 (2 sec)] >> All right. Nupo Gupta of ESR Investments Unidentified speaker [00:23:19-00:23:20 (1 sec)] is sticking around there's plenty more Unidentified speaker [00:23:20-00:23:22 (2 sec)] to talk about. Uh still ahead we also Unidentified speaker [00:23:22-00:23:24 (2 sec)] have our exclusive conversation with Unidentified speaker [00:23:24-00:23:27 (3 sec)] Vietnamese President Tam who tells us a Unidentified speaker [00:23:27-00:23:29 (2 sec)] trade deal with the US [music] is close Unidentified speaker [00:23:29-00:23:31 (2 sec)] after months of negotiations. This is Unidentified speaker [00:23:31-00:23:59 (28 sec)] Bloomberg. Unidentified speaker [00:23:59-00:24:06 (7 sec)] >> [music] Unidentified speaker [00:24:06-00:24:08 (2 sec)] >> Welcome back. You're watching Insight. Unidentified speaker [00:24:08-00:24:10 (2 sec)] Vietnamese President Toe Lamb says his Unidentified speaker [00:24:10-00:24:12 (2 sec)] nation is very close to a trade deal Unidentified speaker [00:24:12-00:24:14 (2 sec)] with the US as he pledges to buy more Unidentified speaker [00:24:14-00:24:17 (3 sec)] high-tech goods to narrow the trade gap. Unidentified speaker [00:24:17-00:24:19 (2 sec)] Lamb spoke to us exclusively on the Unidentified speaker [00:24:19-00:24:20 (1 sec)] sidelines of the United Nations General Unidentified speaker [00:24:20-00:24:30 (10 sec)] Assembly in New York. Unidentified speaker [00:24:30-00:24:32 (2 sec)] One of the goals we set as traveling to Unidentified speaker [00:24:32-00:24:34 (2 sec)] the US for the 81st session of the UN Unidentified speaker [00:24:34-00:24:37 (3 sec)] General Assembly is to arrange meetings Unidentified speaker [00:24:37-00:24:39 (2 sec)] with US leaders to further advance our Unidentified speaker [00:24:39-00:24:41 (2 sec)] bilateral cooperation across various Unidentified speaker [00:24:41-00:24:44 (3 sec)] areas in which economic trade and Unidentified speaker [00:24:44-00:24:47 (3 sec)] investment cooperation remain key focus. Unidentified speaker [00:24:47-00:24:49 (2 sec)] The economic and trade relation between Unidentified speaker [00:24:49-00:24:51 (2 sec)] Vietnam and the US are advancing very Unidentified speaker [00:24:51-00:24:53 (2 sec)] well. Both economies are very much Unidentified speaker [00:24:53-00:24:55 (2 sec)] complimentary. Ever since the Unidentified speaker [00:24:55-00:24:57 (2 sec)] establishment of the strategic Unidentified speaker [00:24:57-00:24:58 (1 sec)] partnership between our two countries, Unidentified speaker [00:24:58-00:25:00 (2 sec)] we've witnessed excellent progress in Unidentified speaker [00:25:00-00:25:02 (2 sec)] our cooperation, especially in economic Unidentified speaker [00:25:02-00:25:05 (3 sec)] and trade sectors. We enjoy excellent Unidentified speaker [00:25:05-00:25:08 (3 sec)] trade turnover. And while we are at Unidentified speaker [00:25:08-00:25:10 (2 sec)] present having trade surplus against the Unidentified speaker [00:25:10-00:25:12 (2 sec)] US, we can see that it stems from Unidentified speaker [00:25:12-00:25:14 (2 sec)] multiple factors. Unidentified speaker [00:25:14-00:25:16 (2 sec)] Goods produced in Vietnam align with US Unidentified speaker [00:25:16-00:25:18 (2 sec)] demand and do not directly compete with Unidentified speaker [00:25:18-00:25:21 (3 sec)] US manufacturing. At the same time, we Unidentified speaker [00:25:21-00:25:23 (2 sec)] aim to import more goods from the US, Unidentified speaker [00:25:23-00:25:25 (2 sec)] especially high-tech products to support Unidentified speaker [00:25:25-00:25:28 (3 sec)] our manufacturing sector. However, there Unidentified speaker [00:25:28-00:25:30 (2 sec)] remains certain obstacles within US Unidentified speaker [00:25:30-00:25:32 (2 sec)] export policies. We will continue Unidentified speaker [00:25:32-00:25:34 (2 sec)] working to narrow those gaps. It's good Unidentified speaker [00:25:34-00:25:36 (2 sec)] that since earlier of this year, imports Unidentified speaker [00:25:36-00:25:38 (2 sec)] from the US to Vietnam have increased by Unidentified speaker [00:25:38-00:25:40 (2 sec)] nearly 30% as compared to the same Unidentified speaker [00:25:40-00:25:43 (3 sec)] period last year. More trade contracts Unidentified speaker [00:25:43-00:25:45 (2 sec)] have been signed. The deals signed since Unidentified speaker [00:25:45-00:25:47 (2 sec)] the upgrade of bilateral ties have Unidentified speaker [00:25:47-00:25:50 (3 sec)] reached 140 billions of US dollars, Unidentified speaker [00:25:50-00:25:52 (2 sec)] equaling to the trade balance between Unidentified speaker [00:25:52-00:25:54 (2 sec)] the two countries. We're optimistic Unidentified speaker [00:25:54-00:25:56 (2 sec)] about this trade relationship. One of Unidentified speaker [00:25:56-00:25:58 (2 sec)] the issues we need to discuss with US Unidentified speaker [00:25:58-00:26:00 (2 sec)] leaders, particularly with the US Unidentified speaker [00:26:00-00:26:02 (2 sec)] president, is how to expedite Unidentified speaker [00:26:02-00:26:05 (3 sec)] negotiations towards an agreement on Unidentified speaker [00:26:05-00:26:07 (2 sec)] reciprocal, balanced, and equitable Unidentified speaker [00:26:07-00:26:10 (3 sec)] tariffs between the two countries. The Unidentified speaker [00:26:10-00:26:12 (2 sec)] cooperation and discussions on this Unidentified speaker [00:26:12-00:26:13 (1 sec)] issue have come very close to reaching Unidentified speaker [00:26:13-00:26:16 (3 sec)] an agreement. The major issues have Unidentified speaker [00:26:16-00:26:17 (1 sec)] fundamentally been solved and agreed Unidentified speaker [00:26:17-00:26:20 (3 sec)] from both sides and we will continue Unidentified speaker [00:26:20-00:26:22 (2 sec)] making every effort during this visit to Unidentified speaker [00:26:22-00:26:24 (2 sec)] work with the US to achieve further Unidentified speaker [00:26:24-00:26:26 (2 sec)] progress in our economic trade and Unidentified speaker [00:26:26-00:26:29 (3 sec)] investment cooperation. Unidentified speaker [00:26:29-00:26:31 (2 sec)] >> But the US remains frustrated with a Unidentified speaker [00:26:31-00:26:33 (2 sec)] trade gap. If you take a look at Unidentified speaker [00:26:33-00:26:36 (3 sec)] exports, they surge to about $190 Unidentified speaker [00:26:36-00:26:39 (3 sec)] billion and the trade surplus is about Unidentified speaker [00:26:39-00:26:44 (5 sec)] $180 billion. What can you do to address Unidentified speaker [00:26:44-00:26:46 (2 sec)] that trade gap and how quickly can that Unidentified speaker [00:26:46-00:26:49 (3 sec)] happen? Unidentified speaker [00:26:49-00:26:51 (2 sec)] >> We understand the concerns on the US Unidentified speaker [00:26:51-00:26:53 (2 sec)] side about this issue, but I think there Unidentified speaker [00:26:53-00:26:55 (2 sec)] are opportunities to address the trade Unidentified speaker [00:26:55-00:26:57 (2 sec)] imbalance. The products Vietnam has Unidentified speaker [00:26:57-00:26:59 (2 sec)] exported to the US are well suited to Unidentified speaker [00:26:59-00:27:02 (3 sec)] the US market and serve consumer demand Unidentified speaker [00:27:02-00:27:04 (2 sec)] without directly competing with American Unidentified speaker [00:27:04-00:27:07 (3 sec)] products. At the same time, Vietnam is Unidentified speaker [00:27:07-00:27:09 (2 sec)] developing its science and technology Unidentified speaker [00:27:09-00:27:11 (2 sec)] sectors and wants to increase imports of Unidentified speaker [00:27:11-00:27:13 (2 sec)] advanced technologies and high-tech Unidentified speaker [00:27:13-00:27:15 (2 sec)] equipment from the US. Unidentified speaker [00:27:15-00:27:18 (3 sec)] >> Of course, Vietnam faces 12 and a half% Unidentified speaker [00:27:18-00:27:21 (3 sec)] of tariffs under section 301 and there's Unidentified speaker [00:27:21-00:27:23 (2 sec)] concern of course that you could see Unidentified speaker [00:27:23-00:27:26 (3 sec)] additional tariffs. Are you confident Unidentified speaker [00:27:26-00:27:30 (4 sec)] that new terrors will not be imposed? Unidentified speaker [00:27:30-00:27:32 (2 sec)] >> I will also discuss this issue with US Unidentified speaker [00:27:32-00:27:34 (2 sec)] officials shortly right after this with Unidentified speaker [00:27:34-00:27:36 (2 sec)] an aim to fostering greater mutual Unidentified speaker [00:27:36-00:27:39 (3 sec)] understanding. The preliminary results Unidentified speaker [00:27:39-00:27:41 (2 sec)] of the US investigations are also Unidentified speaker [00:27:41-00:27:43 (2 sec)] progressing well. I believe there'll be Unidentified speaker [00:27:43-00:27:45 (2 sec)] very reasonable assessments of the Unidentified speaker [00:27:45-00:27:47 (2 sec)] issues under US investigations leading Unidentified speaker [00:27:47-00:27:49 (2 sec)] to conclusions and appropriate tariff Unidentified speaker [00:27:49-00:27:52 (3 sec)] that will allow bilateral relations to Unidentified speaker [00:27:52-00:27:54 (2 sec)] continue developing. Unidentified speaker [00:27:54-00:27:56 (2 sec)] You you talked about meeting US Unidentified speaker [00:27:56-00:27:58 (2 sec)] officials. Does that include President Unidentified speaker [00:27:58-00:27:59 (1 sec)] Donald Trump? Unidentified speaker [00:27:59-00:28:02 (3 sec)] >> There could be potential meetings. Unidentified speaker [00:28:02-00:28:04 (2 sec)] First, our ministers will meet their US Unidentified speaker [00:28:04-00:28:06 (2 sec)] counterparts and trade representatives. Unidentified speaker [00:28:06-00:28:08 (2 sec)] They've already met many times. Both Unidentified speaker [00:28:08-00:28:10 (2 sec)] sides have reached a high degree of Unidentified speaker [00:28:10-00:28:12 (2 sec)] consensus on fundamental issues. While a Unidentified speaker [00:28:12-00:28:14 (2 sec)] few details remain, both sides are very Unidentified speaker [00:28:14-00:28:16 (2 sec)] close in position to resolving these Unidentified speaker [00:28:16-00:28:18 (2 sec)] outstanding matters. Unidentified speaker [00:28:18-00:28:19 (1 sec)] >> One of the key issues is actually the Unidentified speaker [00:28:19-00:28:21 (2 sec)] issue of trans shshipment. What's your Unidentified speaker [00:28:21-00:28:24 (3 sec)] view on that? Unidentified speaker [00:28:24-00:28:26 (2 sec)] We also affirm that we do not accept Unidentified speaker [00:28:26-00:28:28 (2 sec)] trans shshipments of goods. Trade must Unidentified speaker [00:28:28-00:28:30 (2 sec)] be genuine with products actually Unidentified speaker [00:28:30-00:28:32 (2 sec)] manufactured in Vietnam and meeting Unidentified speaker [00:28:32-00:28:33 (1 sec)] international standards and our Unidentified speaker [00:28:33-00:28:36 (3 sec)] requirements not only for the US market Unidentified speaker [00:28:36-00:28:38 (2 sec)] but also for other international markets Unidentified speaker [00:28:38-00:28:40 (2 sec)] where Vietnam has participated. Unidentified speaker [00:28:40-00:28:42 (2 sec)] >> Mr. President, you talked about 10% Unidentified speaker [00:28:42-00:28:44 (2 sec)] growth which some say is a pretty Unidentified speaker [00:28:44-00:28:47 (3 sec)] ambitious target. Why the target? And is Unidentified speaker [00:28:47-00:28:50 (3 sec)] there risk that you risk overheating the Unidentified speaker [00:28:50-00:28:55 (5 sec)] economy getting to 10%. Unidentified speaker [00:28:55-00:28:56 (1 sec)] >> We have carefully calculated and Unidentified speaker [00:28:56-00:28:59 (3 sec)] considered our growth targets. We are Unidentified speaker [00:28:59-00:29:01 (2 sec)] pursuing goals with 100-year development Unidentified speaker [00:29:01-00:29:03 (2 sec)] vision and achieving them will require Unidentified speaker [00:29:03-00:29:05 (2 sec)] maintaining doubledigit growth for many Unidentified speaker [00:29:05-00:29:08 (3 sec)] years. Taking into account our current Unidentified speaker [00:29:08-00:29:10 (2 sec)] capabilities, we're undertaking Unidentified speaker [00:29:10-00:29:12 (2 sec)] institutional reforms and building a new Unidentified speaker [00:29:12-00:29:14 (2 sec)] growth model. We're fully confident that Unidentified speaker [00:29:14-00:29:17 (3 sec)] we can achieve these goals. that you go Unidentified speaker [00:29:17-00:29:18 (1 sec)] on. Unidentified speaker [00:29:18-00:29:20 (2 sec)] >> Mr. President, you're talking about AI. Unidentified speaker [00:29:20-00:29:24 (4 sec)] How do you manage AI from the US and Unidentified speaker [00:29:24-00:29:27 (3 sec)] China? Because China produces AI cheaper Unidentified speaker [00:29:27-00:29:29 (2 sec)] and it's fast catching up. How do you Unidentified speaker [00:29:29-00:29:31 (2 sec)] balance the two? Unidentified speaker [00:29:31-00:29:34 (3 sec)] >> We view AI from the view towards Unidentified speaker [00:29:34-00:29:36 (2 sec)] frontier and modern AI and its Unidentified speaker [00:29:36-00:29:37 (1 sec)] development must be pursued with Unidentified speaker [00:29:37-00:29:40 (3 sec)] responsibility. All countries around the Unidentified speaker [00:29:40-00:29:41 (1 sec)] world should adhere to advanced and Unidentified speaker [00:29:41-00:29:44 (3 sec)] responsible AI models serving the Unidentified speaker [00:29:44-00:29:46 (2 sec)] development of the people. the Unidentified speaker [00:29:46-00:29:47 (1 sec)] development goals of single countries Unidentified speaker [00:29:47-00:29:52 (5 sec)] and also on a global scale. Unidentified speaker [00:29:52-00:29:55 (3 sec)] >> That is Vietnamese President Tam Unidentified speaker [00:29:55-00:29:57 (2 sec)] speaking exclusively with our very own Unidentified speaker [00:29:57-00:30:00 (3 sec)] Has Linda Amin in New York. Nupal Gupta Unidentified speaker [00:30:00-00:30:02 (2 sec)] is still with us portfolio manager at Unidentified speaker [00:30:02-00:30:04 (2 sec)] Eastring Investments and Nuber. A lot of Unidentified speaker [00:30:04-00:30:06 (2 sec)] attention being paid to the goings on in Unidentified speaker [00:30:06-00:30:08 (2 sec)] New York at the moment against this Unidentified speaker [00:30:08-00:30:10 (2 sec)] geopolitical backdrop negotiations Unidentified speaker [00:30:10-00:30:13 (3 sec)] between the US and China as well. Is Unidentified speaker [00:30:13-00:30:15 (2 sec)] there anything happening in that Unidentified speaker [00:30:15-00:30:17 (2 sec)] conversation that might make any Unidentified speaker [00:30:17-00:30:19 (2 sec)] difference to investors? Because at the Unidentified speaker [00:30:19-00:30:21 (2 sec)] moment all we seem to have is the sniff Unidentified speaker [00:30:21-00:30:23 (2 sec)] of a possibility of maybe extending the Unidentified speaker [00:30:23-00:30:27 (4 sec)] trade truce. Unidentified speaker [00:30:27-00:30:30 (3 sec)] >> So there is some in indications that Unidentified speaker [00:30:30-00:30:32 (2 sec)] possibly investors would be looking at Unidentified speaker [00:30:32-00:30:34 (2 sec)] uh you know the both the parties have an Unidentified speaker [00:30:34-00:30:36 (2 sec)] incentive to keep things relatively Unidentified speaker [00:30:36-00:30:39 (3 sec)] cordial um from our perspective. So Unidentified speaker [00:30:39-00:30:41 (2 sec)] trade trade deals for sure the extension Unidentified speaker [00:30:41-00:30:43 (2 sec)] of the trade uh you know the trade Unidentified speaker [00:30:43-00:30:46 (3 sec)] agreements and uh also possibly thinking Unidentified speaker [00:30:46-00:30:48 (2 sec)] about how technology sector interacts Unidentified speaker [00:30:48-00:30:50 (2 sec)] between the two economies and US and Unidentified speaker [00:30:50-00:30:52 (2 sec)] China uh could also be important but Unidentified speaker [00:30:52-00:30:54 (2 sec)] really from uh the market standpoint Unidentified speaker [00:30:54-00:30:57 (3 sec)] today the more important uh agreement Unidentified speaker [00:30:57-00:31:00 (3 sec)] and negotiation is between US and Iran. Unidentified speaker [00:31:00-00:31:01 (1 sec)] uh the impact that has on the Unidentified speaker [00:31:01-00:31:04 (3 sec)] macroeconomic uh backdrop uh and what it Unidentified speaker [00:31:04-00:31:07 (3 sec)] means for inflation, for monetary policy Unidentified speaker [00:31:07-00:31:08 (1 sec)] uh what it means for possibly the Unidentified speaker [00:31:08-00:31:11 (3 sec)] midterm election results uh as well as Unidentified speaker [00:31:11-00:31:13 (2 sec)] uh policy into next year is is really Unidentified speaker [00:31:13-00:31:14 (1 sec)] the key focus at the moment for Unidentified speaker [00:31:14-00:31:16 (2 sec)] investors. Unidentified speaker [00:31:16-00:31:18 (2 sec)] >> Yeah. Let's talk a little bit about the Unidentified speaker [00:31:18-00:31:20 (2 sec)] situation in Iran. Uh, do you anticipate Unidentified speaker [00:31:20-00:31:22 (2 sec)] any meaningful breakthrough before the Unidentified speaker [00:31:22-00:31:24 (2 sec)] midterms, which are getting pretty close Unidentified speaker [00:31:24-00:31:26 (2 sec)] now, or or the odds of reaching some Unidentified speaker [00:31:26-00:31:28 (2 sec)] sort of an agreement better once that Unidentified speaker [00:31:28-00:31:31 (3 sec)] election's out of the way? Unidentified speaker [00:31:31-00:31:34 (3 sec)] >> So, we do see some uh, you know, some Unidentified speaker [00:31:34-00:31:35 (1 sec)] headlines that there are some Unidentified speaker [00:31:35-00:31:37 (2 sec)] negotiations happening in the back door, Unidentified speaker [00:31:37-00:31:39 (2 sec)] but it doesn't look like there's going Unidentified speaker [00:31:39-00:31:42 (3 sec)] to be a a full-blown deal uh or Unidentified speaker [00:31:42-00:31:44 (2 sec)] negotiate negotiated deal uh before the Unidentified speaker [00:31:44-00:31:46 (2 sec)] midterms. Uh again the incentive Unidentified speaker [00:31:46-00:31:48 (2 sec)] certainly is to get to something because Unidentified speaker [00:31:48-00:31:50 (2 sec)] where crude oil prices are trading at uh Unidentified speaker [00:31:50-00:31:53 (3 sec)] it is becoming a macroeconomic Unidentified speaker [00:31:53-00:31:56 (3 sec)] impediment. Um if we think about how Unidentified speaker [00:31:56-00:31:58 (2 sec)] important the US Federal Reserve meeting Unidentified speaker [00:31:58-00:32:00 (2 sec)] was in September, it goes to show that Unidentified speaker [00:32:00-00:32:02 (2 sec)] when oil prices are rising at a time Unidentified speaker [00:32:02-00:32:05 (3 sec)] when you have a new Fed chairman, the Unidentified speaker [00:32:05-00:32:07 (2 sec)] bond investors and investors in general Unidentified speaker [00:32:07-00:32:09 (2 sec)] are really trying to figure out how Unidentified speaker [00:32:09-00:32:11 (2 sec)] policy makers are going to react. And Unidentified speaker [00:32:11-00:32:13 (2 sec)] that is putting a lid on risk assets to Unidentified speaker [00:32:13-00:32:16 (3 sec)] some degree. So the chances of a Unidentified speaker [00:32:16-00:32:18 (2 sec)] negotiation uh before the midterms, you Unidentified speaker [00:32:18-00:32:20 (2 sec)] know, it is there, but the chances of a Unidentified speaker [00:32:20-00:32:23 (3 sec)] full-blown deal probably is uh is less Unidentified speaker [00:32:23-00:32:25 (2 sec)] uh the probability. However, all the Unidentified speaker [00:32:25-00:32:27 (2 sec)] market needs really right now is Unidentified speaker [00:32:27-00:32:29 (2 sec)] something to not worsen. Um and to have Unidentified speaker [00:32:29-00:32:31 (2 sec)] some indication that the two parties are Unidentified speaker [00:32:31-00:32:34 (3 sec)] talking and it can eventually uh mean Unidentified speaker [00:32:34-00:32:36 (2 sec)] that the worst of the oil prices is is Unidentified speaker [00:32:36-00:32:38 (2 sec)] is here with us. Unidentified speaker [00:32:38-00:32:40 (2 sec)] Yeah, but we did have a warning from Unidentified speaker [00:32:40-00:32:42 (2 sec)] Austin Goulsby of the Fed a little bit Unidentified speaker [00:32:42-00:32:43 (1 sec)] earlier saying, "Look, some of these Unidentified speaker [00:32:43-00:32:45 (2 sec)] persistent supply shocks can't really be Unidentified speaker [00:32:45-00:32:47 (2 sec)] looked through when it comes to Unidentified speaker [00:32:47-00:32:49 (2 sec)] inflation." So, with that in mind, where Unidentified speaker [00:32:49-00:32:51 (2 sec)] do you place the possibility of a Fed Unidentified speaker [00:32:51-00:32:52 (1 sec)] tightening in October, potentially Unidentified speaker [00:32:52-00:32:57 (5 sec)] December or or in 2027? Unidentified speaker [00:32:57-00:32:59 (2 sec)] >> So, we do expect the Fed to tighten Unidentified speaker [00:32:59-00:33:02 (3 sec)] rates by once more this year. uh it is Unidentified speaker [00:33:02-00:33:03 (1 sec)] relatively on the hawkish side relative Unidentified speaker [00:33:03-00:33:06 (3 sec)] to you know some of the other um the the Unidentified speaker [00:33:06-00:33:09 (3 sec)] other asset managers. But if we look at Unidentified speaker [00:33:09-00:33:12 (3 sec)] uh the pass through the cost cost push Unidentified speaker [00:33:12-00:33:14 (2 sec)] inflation in the US uh we are starting Unidentified speaker [00:33:14-00:33:16 (2 sec)] to see some indications that it is Unidentified speaker [00:33:16-00:33:18 (2 sec)] seeping through to the second order uh Unidentified speaker [00:33:18-00:33:21 (3 sec)] effects and as commodity analysts have Unidentified speaker [00:33:21-00:33:24 (3 sec)] been highlighting and that we agree with Unidentified speaker [00:33:24-00:33:26 (2 sec)] the depletion of uh stocks and Unidentified speaker [00:33:26-00:33:28 (2 sec)] inventories is really putting pressure Unidentified speaker [00:33:28-00:33:30 (2 sec)] on the commodity markets. I think what's Unidentified speaker [00:33:30-00:33:32 (2 sec)] more important is what we're seeing in Unidentified speaker [00:33:32-00:33:33 (1 sec)] the natural gas space. Uh so we saw Unidentified speaker [00:33:33-00:33:37 (4 sec)] almost uh 57% increase uh during the Unidentified speaker [00:33:37-00:33:39 (2 sec)] first uh round in in February and March Unidentified speaker [00:33:39-00:33:42 (3 sec)] and another 65% increase in natural gas Unidentified speaker [00:33:42-00:33:45 (3 sec)] prices uh this time around which is Unidentified speaker [00:33:45-00:33:46 (1 sec)] impacting Europe more than the rest of Unidentified speaker [00:33:46-00:33:49 (3 sec)] the world. Um and generally speaking you Unidentified speaker [00:33:49-00:33:51 (2 sec)] know that that is going to keep central Unidentified speaker [00:33:51-00:33:54 (3 sec)] banks in in a tightening or a hawkish Unidentified speaker [00:33:54-00:33:56 (2 sec)] mode because they do also need to Unidentified speaker [00:33:56-00:33:57 (1 sec)] establish the credibility especially Unidentified speaker [00:33:57-00:34:00 (3 sec)] when growth data is good. So if you look Unidentified speaker [00:34:00-00:34:02 (2 sec)] at the US um you know labor market data, Unidentified speaker [00:34:02-00:34:04 (2 sec)] manufacturing sector, consumers data, Unidentified speaker [00:34:04-00:34:06 (2 sec)] all of them are pointing towards pretty Unidentified speaker [00:34:06-00:34:08 (2 sec)] robust uh data. So the Fed doesn't Unidentified speaker [00:34:08-00:34:10 (2 sec)] really need to keep rates low in order Unidentified speaker [00:34:10-00:34:12 (2 sec)] to support growth at this st at this Unidentified speaker [00:34:12-00:34:14 (2 sec)] point in time. So it can in fact Unidentified speaker [00:34:14-00:34:18 (4 sec)] reassert its confirmation that uh it is Unidentified speaker [00:34:18-00:34:20 (2 sec)] focused on keeping inflation at a lid. Unidentified speaker [00:34:20-00:34:21 (1 sec)] So we do think that it will continue to Unidentified speaker [00:34:21-00:34:24 (3 sec)] remain uh you know towards the hawkish Unidentified speaker [00:34:24-00:34:27 (3 sec)] side. Um, having said all of that, we Unidentified speaker [00:34:27-00:34:28 (1 sec)] are keeping our eyes on inflation Unidentified speaker [00:34:28-00:34:30 (2 sec)] expectations. If you look at fiveyear, Unidentified speaker [00:34:30-00:34:32 (2 sec)] fiveyear inflation swaps in the US, uh, Unidentified speaker [00:34:32-00:34:34 (2 sec)] they are pretty rangebound, which tells Unidentified speaker [00:34:34-00:34:36 (2 sec)] us that the market isn't really Unidentified speaker [00:34:36-00:34:38 (2 sec)] expecting a sustainable increase in Unidentified speaker [00:34:38-00:34:40 (2 sec)] headline inflation in the US. However, Unidentified speaker [00:34:40-00:34:42 (2 sec)] in Europe, it's different. Two-year Unidentified speaker [00:34:42-00:34:44 (2 sec)] inflation swaps have have increased over Unidentified speaker [00:34:44-00:34:46 (2 sec)] the last two months. So, there's a bit Unidentified speaker [00:34:46-00:34:48 (2 sec)] of a difference between when you look at Unidentified speaker [00:34:48-00:34:49 (1 sec)] US and Europe. But uh generally Unidentified speaker [00:34:49-00:34:51 (2 sec)] speaking, central banks will need to Unidentified speaker [00:34:51-00:34:53 (2 sec)] remain hawkish in order to re reaffirm Unidentified speaker [00:34:53-00:34:55 (2 sec)] their credibility. Unidentified speaker [00:34:55-00:34:57 (2 sec)] >> What's your outlook for le yields as Unidentified speaker [00:34:57-00:34:59 (2 sec)] well? And let let's assume a baseline Unidentified speaker [00:34:59-00:35:01 (2 sec)] that there's not a sudden outbreak of Unidentified speaker [00:35:01-00:35:03 (2 sec)] fiscal discipline in the United States. Unidentified speaker [00:35:03-00:35:05 (2 sec)] Where do you see yields heading? And and Unidentified speaker [00:35:05-00:35:07 (2 sec)] what's a good balance in a portfolio at Unidentified speaker [00:35:07-00:35:09 (2 sec)] the moment between uh fixed income and Unidentified speaker [00:35:09-00:35:12 (3 sec)] equities? Unidentified speaker [00:35:12-00:35:13 (1 sec)] Yeah, it's a great question and I think Unidentified speaker [00:35:13-00:35:15 (2 sec)] it's one that we're toying with every Unidentified speaker [00:35:15-00:35:17 (2 sec)] day because um the pace of increase of Unidentified speaker [00:35:17-00:35:20 (3 sec)] bond yields matters more for equities Unidentified speaker [00:35:20-00:35:23 (3 sec)] than the exact level of your of yields. Unidentified speaker [00:35:23-00:35:24 (1 sec)] And what we've seen over the last two Unidentified speaker [00:35:24-00:35:26 (2 sec)] months is that 30-year bond yields have Unidentified speaker [00:35:26-00:35:29 (3 sec)] increased by 40 45 basis points uh at Unidentified speaker [00:35:29-00:35:32 (3 sec)] one point, but equities are still up 4%. Unidentified speaker [00:35:32-00:35:34 (2 sec)] So S&P 500 is still up 4% in the last Unidentified speaker [00:35:34-00:35:36 (2 sec)] two months, which is very different to Unidentified speaker [00:35:36-00:35:39 (3 sec)] what we saw in 2022 when we had both Unidentified speaker [00:35:39-00:35:41 (2 sec)] equities and bonds struggling and Unidentified speaker [00:35:41-00:35:44 (3 sec)] basically bonds becoming a significant Unidentified speaker [00:35:44-00:35:46 (2 sec)] headwind to equities. What we're seeing Unidentified speaker [00:35:46-00:35:47 (1 sec)] this time around is that because you Unidentified speaker [00:35:47-00:35:50 (3 sec)] have the AI cycle and the AI capex which Unidentified speaker [00:35:50-00:35:53 (3 sec)] is less sensitive to where yields are, Unidentified speaker [00:35:53-00:35:55 (2 sec)] you are starting to see that equity Unidentified speaker [00:35:55-00:35:57 (2 sec)] investors are willing to stay invested Unidentified speaker [00:35:57-00:36:00 (3 sec)] as long as that story continues. So if Unidentified speaker [00:36:00-00:36:03 (3 sec)] you do see earnings expectations in the Unidentified speaker [00:36:03-00:36:04 (1 sec)] US, you know, continue to remain at 12 Unidentified speaker [00:36:04-00:36:07 (3 sec)] to 15% for the next 12 months, then even Unidentified speaker [00:36:07-00:36:10 (3 sec)] if bond yields are at five uh, you know, Unidentified speaker [00:36:10-00:36:12 (2 sec)] for 30-year bond deals, even if they are Unidentified speaker [00:36:12-00:36:15 (3 sec)] at hovering around 5.3%, Unidentified speaker [00:36:15-00:36:17 (2 sec)] uh, it can still continue to mean pretty Unidentified speaker [00:36:17-00:36:19 (2 sec)] decent outcomes for the equity market. Unidentified speaker [00:36:19-00:36:21 (2 sec)] uh we think it becomes a bigger problem Unidentified speaker [00:36:21-00:36:24 (3 sec)] if we head towards 5.5% in 30-year bond Unidentified speaker [00:36:24-00:36:26 (2 sec)] deals because then their pace of Unidentified speaker [00:36:26-00:36:28 (2 sec)] increase is too significant that Unidentified speaker [00:36:28-00:36:30 (2 sec)] eventually it will hurt growth and Unidentified speaker [00:36:30-00:36:32 (2 sec)] eventually it will hurt earnings. Uh but Unidentified speaker [00:36:32-00:36:34 (2 sec)] at the moment uh we think that it's Unidentified speaker [00:36:34-00:36:37 (3 sec)] probably able to absorb it. Unidentified speaker [00:36:37-00:36:39 (2 sec)] >> Well, if we can assume a little bit more Unidentified speaker [00:36:39-00:36:41 (2 sec)] Fed tightening and maybe a stronger US Unidentified speaker [00:36:41-00:36:43 (2 sec)] dollar as well, how do you make a case Unidentified speaker [00:36:43-00:36:44 (1 sec)] for emerging markets in this Unidentified speaker [00:36:44-00:36:46 (2 sec)] environment? Unidentified speaker [00:36:46-00:36:50 (4 sec)] So emerging markets is quite uh Unidentified speaker [00:36:50-00:36:52 (2 sec)] different uh as in there is lots of Unidentified speaker [00:36:52-00:36:53 (1 sec)] different parts of emerging markets. I Unidentified speaker [00:36:53-00:36:55 (2 sec)] would break them down in fact. So North Unidentified speaker [00:36:55-00:36:58 (3 sec)] Asia as we've discussed before is really Unidentified speaker [00:36:58-00:37:00 (2 sec)] very much driven by the chip cycle and Unidentified speaker [00:37:00-00:37:01 (1 sec)] you can see exports are going through Unidentified speaker [00:37:01-00:37:03 (2 sec)] the roof. Fiscal revenues are increasing Unidentified speaker [00:37:03-00:37:05 (2 sec)] in those economies. Um and you know Unidentified speaker [00:37:05-00:37:07 (2 sec)] general wealth is increasing as well Unidentified speaker [00:37:07-00:37:09 (2 sec)] financial and non-financial wealth. Um Unidentified speaker [00:37:09-00:37:12 (3 sec)] so so North Asia we think can continue Unidentified speaker [00:37:12-00:37:14 (2 sec)] to grow because of the earnings uh Unidentified speaker [00:37:14-00:37:16 (2 sec)] because of the earnings expectations. Um Unidentified speaker [00:37:16-00:37:19 (3 sec)] the commodity importers uh of Asia and Unidentified speaker [00:37:19-00:37:21 (2 sec)] emerging markets becomes more tricky Unidentified speaker [00:37:21-00:37:23 (2 sec)] because they are going to be faced with Unidentified speaker [00:37:23-00:37:26 (3 sec)] a higher uh cost of energy and the Unidentified speaker [00:37:26-00:37:27 (1 sec)] spillover effects that that has on the Unidentified speaker [00:37:27-00:37:29 (2 sec)] rest of the inflation basket which Unidentified speaker [00:37:29-00:37:31 (2 sec)] implies that central banks in those uh Unidentified speaker [00:37:31-00:37:34 (3 sec)] countries including India, Indonesia are Unidentified speaker [00:37:34-00:37:36 (2 sec)] going to have to keep rates higher uh Unidentified speaker [00:37:36-00:37:38 (2 sec)] which will potentially restrict growth. Unidentified speaker [00:37:38-00:37:40 (2 sec)] Uh and then the commodity exporters uh Unidentified speaker [00:37:40-00:37:41 (1 sec)] you know closer to home probably Unidentified speaker [00:37:41-00:37:44 (3 sec)] Malaysia but even further away Brazil uh Unidentified speaker [00:37:44-00:37:46 (2 sec)] which also then has an election coming Unidentified speaker [00:37:46-00:37:49 (3 sec)] up uh can continue to see an increase in Unidentified speaker [00:37:49-00:37:51 (2 sec)] uh increase in growth and therefore Unidentified speaker [00:37:51-00:37:53 (2 sec)] supportive risk assets because in fact Unidentified speaker [00:37:53-00:37:56 (3 sec)] they benefit from uh from the commodity Unidentified speaker [00:37:56-00:37:58 (2 sec)] upcycle. So emerging markets as a whole Unidentified speaker [00:37:58-00:38:00 (2 sec)] is probably something that needs to be Unidentified speaker [00:38:00-00:38:02 (2 sec)] broken down. So we do prefer North Asia Unidentified speaker [00:38:02-00:38:04 (2 sec)] and commodity exporters as compared to Unidentified speaker [00:38:04-00:38:06 (2 sec)] commodity importers. Unidentified speaker [00:38:06-00:38:08 (2 sec)] All right, New thanks so much for your Unidentified speaker [00:38:08-00:38:10 (2 sec)] analysis today. That is New Gupta, Unidentified speaker [00:38:10-00:38:12 (2 sec)] portfolio manager at Espring Unidentified speaker [00:38:12-00:38:14 (2 sec)] Investments. Coming up, we'll discuss Unidentified speaker [00:38:14-00:38:16 (2 sec)] the next chapter for India's payments Unidentified speaker [00:38:16-00:38:17 (1 sec)] ecosystem and where the biggest [music] Unidentified speaker [00:38:17-00:38:20 (3 sec)] opportunities are emerging in crossber Unidentified speaker [00:38:20-00:38:28 (8 sec)] flows. Unidentified speaker [00:38:28-00:38:30 (2 sec)] Welcome back. You're watching Insight. Unidentified speaker [00:38:30-00:38:32 (2 sec)] Let's take a look at the market open in Unidentified speaker [00:38:32-00:38:35 (3 sec)] India. We've had some rather subdued Unidentified speaker [00:38:35-00:38:38 (3 sec)] demand for National Stock Exchange's 2.4 Unidentified speaker [00:38:38-00:38:41 (3 sec)] billion initial IPO. Just the retail Unidentified speaker [00:38:41-00:38:43 (2 sec)] investor portion just subbed 1.3 times. Unidentified speaker [00:38:43-00:38:45 (2 sec)] That was well short of other Indian Unidentified speaker [00:38:45-00:38:48 (3 sec)] IPOs. Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan's also Unidentified speaker [00:38:48-00:38:50 (2 sec)] weighed into the Tata saga saying uh of Unidentified speaker [00:38:50-00:38:52 (2 sec)] the Tata chair Chandra, I think the Unidentified speaker [00:38:52-00:38:54 (2 sec)] world of Chandra, I would never want to Unidentified speaker [00:38:54-00:38:56 (2 sec)] lose him and he's warning that the Unidentified speaker [00:38:56-00:38:58 (2 sec)] governance battle at Tata could shake Unidentified speaker [00:38:58-00:39:00 (2 sec)] investor confidence. Sensex kind of flat Unidentified speaker [00:39:00-00:39:03 (3 sec)] at the moment in India. Well, JP Unidentified speaker [00:39:03-00:39:05 (2 sec)] Morgan's flagship India conference is Unidentified speaker [00:39:05-00:39:06 (1 sec)] underway in Mumbai this week bringing Unidentified speaker [00:39:06-00:39:08 (2 sec)] together global fund managers and Unidentified speaker [00:39:08-00:39:10 (2 sec)] corporate executives. Bloomberg senior Unidentified speaker [00:39:10-00:39:12 (2 sec)] editor Manica Doshi is at the event Unidentified speaker [00:39:12-00:39:17 (5 sec)] joins us with our next guest. Manica. Unidentified speaker [00:39:17-00:39:18 (1 sec)] >> Well, Paul, thank you very much. You Unidentified speaker [00:39:18-00:39:20 (2 sec)] know, payments is a hot topic in India. Unidentified speaker [00:39:20-00:39:23 (3 sec)] what with uh you know UPI which is a Unidentified speaker [00:39:23-00:39:25 (2 sec)] world famous real-time payment system Unidentified speaker [00:39:25-00:39:27 (2 sec)] and the fact that a fee has been levied Unidentified speaker [00:39:27-00:39:30 (3 sec)] for the first time in many years on UPI Unidentified speaker [00:39:30-00:39:33 (3 sec)] and so it's a great moment to have Max Unidentified speaker [00:39:33-00:39:36 (3 sec)] Newer JP Morgan's global co-head of Unidentified speaker [00:39:36-00:39:38 (2 sec)] payments here with us at the JP Morgan Unidentified speaker [00:39:38-00:39:40 (2 sec)] India conference Max thanks very much Unidentified speaker [00:39:40-00:39:41 (1 sec)] for talking to Bloomberg Unidentified speaker [00:39:41-00:39:43 (2 sec)] >> thanks for having me excited to be here Unidentified speaker [00:39:43-00:39:45 (2 sec)] >> so where do you weigh in on this debate Unidentified speaker [00:39:45-00:39:48 (3 sec)] on having a fee or an MDR as it's called Unidentified speaker [00:39:48-00:39:50 (2 sec)] on UPI it's become quite controvers Unidentified speaker [00:39:50-00:39:52 (2 sec)] controversial uh you know locally uh and Unidentified speaker [00:39:52-00:39:54 (2 sec)] does it open up more opportunities for Unidentified speaker [00:39:54-00:39:58 (4 sec)] you as a partner to UPI to be able to Unidentified speaker [00:39:58-00:40:00 (2 sec)] explore more growth? Unidentified speaker [00:40:00-00:40:03 (3 sec)] >> UI has been a tremendous innovation born Unidentified speaker [00:40:03-00:40:06 (3 sec)] out here out of India. Um it's actually Unidentified speaker [00:40:06-00:40:09 (3 sec)] globally seen as one of the real role Unidentified speaker [00:40:09-00:40:11 (2 sec)] models of creating new payment rails, a Unidentified speaker [00:40:11-00:40:15 (4 sec)] new identity solution to open up um Unidentified speaker [00:40:15-00:40:18 (3 sec)] payments capabilities not just in India Unidentified speaker [00:40:18-00:40:21 (3 sec)] but also connecting the world um via Unidentified speaker [00:40:21-00:40:25 (4 sec)] UPI. The the new um payment fees um have Unidentified speaker [00:40:25-00:40:28 (3 sec)] obviously been hotly debated. Um we Unidentified speaker [00:40:28-00:40:30 (2 sec)] believe that it's a good compromise now Unidentified speaker [00:40:30-00:40:33 (3 sec)] at the end of the day to facilitate Unidentified speaker [00:40:33-00:40:35 (2 sec)] further growth for the payment method Unidentified speaker [00:40:35-00:40:38 (3 sec)] while also making sure the economics Unidentified speaker [00:40:38-00:40:40 (2 sec)] work for all the participants in quite a Unidentified speaker [00:40:40-00:40:41 (1 sec)] balanced way. Unidentified speaker [00:40:41-00:40:44 (3 sec)] >> Okay. Um you're a participant in in many Unidentified speaker [00:40:44-00:40:45 (1 sec)] ways. Do you feel there are more Unidentified speaker [00:40:45-00:40:47 (2 sec)] opportunities that open up now that a Unidentified speaker [00:40:47-00:40:49 (2 sec)] line to monetization is a little bit Unidentified speaker [00:40:49-00:40:52 (3 sec)] clearer? We have invested in the last Unidentified speaker [00:40:52-00:40:55 (3 sec)] few years to connect UPI to our global Unidentified speaker [00:40:55-00:40:58 (3 sec)] payments infrastructure and allow Unidentified speaker [00:40:58-00:41:01 (3 sec)] clients here in India to reach broadly Unidentified speaker [00:41:01-00:41:04 (3 sec)] but also global companies to come into Unidentified speaker [00:41:04-00:41:07 (3 sec)] India. And now that the fee structure Unidentified speaker [00:41:07-00:41:10 (3 sec)] has been more clarified, we actually see Unidentified speaker [00:41:10-00:41:14 (4 sec)] quite an increase in interest also of Unidentified speaker [00:41:14-00:41:16 (2 sec)] how that infrastructure can be leveraged Unidentified speaker [00:41:16-00:41:18 (2 sec)] more broadly. Are there any numbers you Unidentified speaker [00:41:18-00:41:20 (2 sec)] can put to it max to give us a sense of Unidentified speaker [00:41:20-00:41:22 (2 sec)] what UPI means to of course a much Unidentified speaker [00:41:22-00:41:25 (3 sec)] bigger payment system at JP Morgan but Unidentified speaker [00:41:25-00:41:26 (1 sec)] just something that sort of illustrates Unidentified speaker [00:41:26-00:41:29 (3 sec)] for us uh you know what the growth can Unidentified speaker [00:41:29-00:41:30 (1 sec)] be over the next few years. Unidentified speaker [00:41:30-00:41:33 (3 sec)] >> We have seen truly I would say Unidentified speaker [00:41:33-00:41:37 (4 sec)] exponential growth um through UPI and Unidentified speaker [00:41:37-00:41:39 (2 sec)] through the usage of UPI in the last few Unidentified speaker [00:41:39-00:41:42 (3 sec)] years. An important next step is also Unidentified speaker [00:41:42-00:41:45 (3 sec)] continuing to link UPI to other Unidentified speaker [00:41:45-00:41:47 (2 sec)] real-time payment systems around the Unidentified speaker [00:41:47-00:41:50 (3 sec)] world. For example, Zel in the US um and Unidentified speaker [00:41:50-00:41:53 (3 sec)] built on that momentum going forward and Unidentified speaker [00:41:53-00:41:55 (2 sec)] it's all driven by a strong client Unidentified speaker [00:41:55-00:41:58 (3 sec)] demand um for those solutions. So we Unidentified speaker [00:41:58-00:42:00 (2 sec)] actually are very optimistic about the Unidentified speaker [00:42:00-00:42:01 (1 sec)] prospects here. Unidentified speaker [00:42:01-00:42:02 (1 sec)] >> All right. You said that you know you Unidentified speaker [00:42:02-00:42:03 (1 sec)] were meeting clients here at the Unidentified speaker [00:42:03-00:42:05 (2 sec)] conference. They sound very buoyant Unidentified speaker [00:42:05-00:42:07 (2 sec)] about the growth opportunity in India. Unidentified speaker [00:42:07-00:42:09 (2 sec)] what do you have lined up for payments Unidentified speaker [00:42:09-00:42:11 (2 sec)] over the course of the next 12 months, Unidentified speaker [00:42:11-00:42:13 (2 sec)] two years uh in terms of either new Unidentified speaker [00:42:13-00:42:15 (2 sec)] services that you're offering or the Unidentified speaker [00:42:15-00:42:17 (2 sec)] kind of growth that you expect and the Unidentified speaker [00:42:17-00:42:19 (2 sec)] revenue opportunity here in India. Unidentified speaker [00:42:19-00:42:23 (4 sec)] >> I mentioned already the um connectivity Unidentified speaker [00:42:23-00:42:25 (2 sec)] of UPI into the global payment system. Unidentified speaker [00:42:25-00:42:27 (2 sec)] There's a key investment area. Unidentified speaker [00:42:27-00:42:32 (5 sec)] >> Um gift city is a a second critical Unidentified speaker [00:42:32-00:42:34 (2 sec)] focus area for us. We've actually been Unidentified speaker [00:42:34-00:42:38 (4 sec)] there for um four years now. We have a Unidentified speaker [00:42:38-00:42:41 (3 sec)] few hundred clients there growing also Unidentified speaker [00:42:41-00:42:44 (3 sec)] very very substantially and we are Unidentified speaker [00:42:44-00:42:47 (3 sec)] adding more capabilities there. We did Unidentified speaker [00:42:47-00:42:50 (3 sec)] um have been doing trade finance NFX in Unidentified speaker [00:42:50-00:42:52 (2 sec)] gift city for a while now adding Unidentified speaker [00:42:52-00:42:55 (3 sec)] liquidity and payment rails will truly Unidentified speaker [00:42:55-00:42:57 (2 sec)] round out the offering to attract Unidentified speaker [00:42:57-00:42:59 (2 sec)] further clients there. And again we see Unidentified speaker [00:42:59-00:43:02 (3 sec)] strong strong demand. And then maybe Unidentified speaker [00:43:02-00:43:05 (3 sec)] another key area is the GCC's. Unidentified speaker [00:43:05-00:43:07 (2 sec)] >> JP Morgan actually runs one of the Unidentified speaker [00:43:07-00:43:10 (3 sec)] biggest GCC's in in India and the Unidentified speaker [00:43:10-00:43:12 (2 sec)] solutions we have been developed for Unidentified speaker [00:43:12-00:43:15 (3 sec)] that around payroll around liquidity Unidentified speaker [00:43:15-00:43:18 (3 sec)] management and FX is also something that Unidentified speaker [00:43:18-00:43:21 (3 sec)] a lot more GCC's can leverage. Um we Unidentified speaker [00:43:21-00:43:25 (4 sec)] actually have a GCC summit later this Unidentified speaker [00:43:25-00:43:27 (2 sec)] week in Bangalore to focus on the Unidentified speaker [00:43:27-00:43:31 (4 sec)] opportunity with the about 2,000 GCC's Unidentified speaker [00:43:31-00:43:33 (2 sec)] that we see here in India. So that is Unidentified speaker [00:43:33-00:43:35 (2 sec)] probably another key investment area. Unidentified speaker [00:43:35-00:43:39 (4 sec)] And then the last one to mention is AI Unidentified speaker [00:43:39-00:43:40 (1 sec)] Energetic Unidentified speaker [00:43:40-00:43:42 (2 sec)] >> where um we are really focused on Unidentified speaker [00:43:42-00:43:44 (2 sec)] bringing the benefits of the new Unidentified speaker [00:43:44-00:43:46 (2 sec)] technology here to the country and to Unidentified speaker [00:43:46-00:43:49 (3 sec)] our clients and and help them grow with Unidentified speaker [00:43:49-00:43:51 (2 sec)] with what AI can offer. Unidentified speaker [00:43:51-00:43:52 (1 sec)] >> Okay, I'm going to talk about AI just a Unidentified speaker [00:43:52-00:43:54 (2 sec)] bit but before that let me dial back to Unidentified speaker [00:43:54-00:43:56 (2 sec)] GIF city. Can you give us a sense of Unidentified speaker [00:43:56-00:43:57 (1 sec)] what the growth has been like for the Unidentified speaker [00:43:57-00:43:59 (2 sec)] kind of services that you provide at Unidentified speaker [00:43:59-00:44:02 (3 sec)] Gift City? uh you mentioned I think over Unidentified speaker [00:44:02-00:44:04 (2 sec)] 100 companies in terms of client numbers Unidentified speaker [00:44:04-00:44:06 (2 sec)] but in terms of revenue opportunity is Unidentified speaker [00:44:06-00:44:08 (2 sec)] there any way to put a number to what Unidentified speaker [00:44:08-00:44:10 (2 sec)] gift city has become now in your India Unidentified speaker [00:44:10-00:44:13 (3 sec)] offering? Gift City is an important Unidentified speaker [00:44:13-00:44:16 (3 sec)] component of um of our Indian offering Unidentified speaker [00:44:16-00:44:19 (3 sec)] and I would say as much as we really Unidentified speaker [00:44:19-00:44:23 (4 sec)] want to see 20 30% growth year on year Unidentified speaker [00:44:23-00:44:25 (2 sec)] and I actually see line of sight of Unidentified speaker [00:44:25-00:44:27 (2 sec)] doubling our business in the next couple Unidentified speaker [00:44:27-00:44:29 (2 sec)] of years there um with the new Unidentified speaker [00:44:29-00:44:31 (2 sec)] investments that we are doing. Unidentified speaker [00:44:31-00:44:33 (2 sec)] >> All right. What you you already have can Unidentified speaker [00:44:33-00:44:35 (2 sec)] access which is one of your key products Unidentified speaker [00:44:35-00:44:37 (2 sec)] here in India. Can you talk us through Unidentified speaker [00:44:37-00:44:39 (2 sec)] uh you know sort of whether you're in Unidentified speaker [00:44:39-00:44:40 (1 sec)] conversations with regulators to be able Unidentified speaker [00:44:40-00:44:43 (3 sec)] to expand that product or expand access Unidentified speaker [00:44:43-00:44:46 (3 sec)] for Indian clients to it uh and you know Unidentified speaker [00:44:46-00:44:47 (1 sec)] what you see the evolution for that? Unidentified speaker [00:44:47-00:44:50 (3 sec)] >> Blockchain solutions offer a lot of Unidentified speaker [00:44:50-00:44:52 (2 sec)] benefits in payments. One of the key Unidentified speaker [00:44:52-00:44:54 (2 sec)] things is to get rid of cut off times Unidentified speaker [00:44:54-00:44:57 (3 sec)] when it comes to crossber payments so Unidentified speaker [00:44:57-00:44:59 (2 sec)] clients can really move money around the Unidentified speaker [00:44:59-00:45:01 (2 sec)] world and also um to have Unidentified speaker [00:45:01-00:45:04 (3 sec)] programmability so you can more Unidentified speaker [00:45:04-00:45:06 (2 sec)] efficiently move money um to different Unidentified speaker [00:45:06-00:45:09 (3 sec)] locations. We have been here with Kexus Unidentified speaker [00:45:09-00:45:11 (2 sec)] in India also for years already Unidentified speaker [00:45:11-00:45:14 (3 sec)] >> and one of our key services is tokenized Unidentified speaker [00:45:14-00:45:16 (2 sec)] deposits. So that is basically a bank Unidentified speaker [00:45:16-00:45:20 (4 sec)] deposit on the blockchain which combines Unidentified speaker [00:45:20-00:45:24 (4 sec)] the benefit of having um a bank deposit Unidentified speaker [00:45:24-00:45:26 (2 sec)] supported by the JP Morgan balance sheet Unidentified speaker [00:45:26-00:45:28 (2 sec)] with the benefits of the blockchain that Unidentified speaker [00:45:28-00:45:31 (3 sec)] allows treasurers and CFOs truly to move Unidentified speaker [00:45:31-00:45:35 (4 sec)] money 24/7 365. We've seen again good Unidentified speaker [00:45:35-00:45:38 (3 sec)] demand there. It's still small relative Unidentified speaker [00:45:38-00:45:41 (3 sec)] to the traditional payment rails but the Unidentified speaker [00:45:41-00:45:43 (2 sec)] growth is pretty strong. So you're Unidentified speaker [00:45:43-00:45:46 (3 sec)] providing a tokenized deposit service to Unidentified speaker [00:45:46-00:45:47 (1 sec)] Indian banks. Have I understood that Unidentified speaker [00:45:47-00:45:48 (1 sec)] correctly? Unidentified speaker [00:45:48-00:45:51 (3 sec)] >> To multinational companies in particular Unidentified speaker [00:45:51-00:45:53 (2 sec)] who manage their liquidity around Unidentified speaker [00:45:53-00:45:55 (2 sec)] multiple locations including here in Unidentified speaker [00:45:55-00:45:56 (1 sec)] India. Unidentified speaker [00:45:56-00:45:58 (2 sec)] >> All right. Uh very just a few seconds Unidentified speaker [00:45:58-00:46:00 (2 sec)] left. How far away are we from uh you Unidentified speaker [00:46:00-00:46:03 (3 sec)] know Agentic AI becoming a core part of Unidentified speaker [00:46:03-00:46:04 (1 sec)] payments Unidentified speaker [00:46:04-00:46:06 (2 sec)] >> and agents making transactions with no Unidentified speaker [00:46:06-00:46:07 (1 sec)] human intervention? Unidentified speaker [00:46:07-00:46:10 (3 sec)] >> So far Agentic is still in the early Unidentified speaker [00:46:10-00:46:13 (3 sec)] days. um it's used for discovery. We see Unidentified speaker [00:46:13-00:46:17 (4 sec)] it also in client onboarding. It's not Unidentified speaker [00:46:17-00:46:19 (2 sec)] yet really part of payments execution. Unidentified speaker [00:46:19-00:46:22 (3 sec)] To your point, we don't see yet agents Unidentified speaker [00:46:22-00:46:24 (2 sec)] truly making payments decision. The key Unidentified speaker [00:46:24-00:46:27 (3 sec)] thing missing for that is the trust Unidentified speaker [00:46:27-00:46:29 (2 sec)] component. How do we ensure when agents Unidentified speaker [00:46:29-00:46:31 (2 sec)] take decisions that it's clear who has Unidentified speaker [00:46:31-00:46:33 (2 sec)] the liability and how that is being Unidentified speaker [00:46:33-00:46:35 (2 sec)] managed? And that is still being worked Unidentified speaker [00:46:35-00:46:38 (3 sec)] on. Having said that, we do see already Unidentified speaker [00:46:38-00:46:42 (4 sec)] real benefit um from agentic payments at Unidentified speaker [00:46:42-00:46:44 (2 sec)] the end of the day in things [music] Unidentified speaker [00:46:44-00:46:47 (3 sec)] like cash flow forecasting or thinking Unidentified speaker [00:46:47-00:46:51 (4 sec)] about um basically Unidentified speaker [00:46:51-00:46:52 (1 sec)] development. I'm so sorry to interrupt Unidentified speaker [00:46:52-00:46:54 (2 sec)] you, but I think we're headed right into Unidentified speaker [00:46:54-00:46:56 (2 sec)] a break, but I'm sure we'll have a Unidentified speaker [00:46:56-00:46:57 (1 sec)] chance to talk to you a little bit more Unidentified speaker [00:46:57-00:46:59 (2 sec)] about AI in the coming years. With that, Unidentified speaker [00:46:59-00:47:01 (2 sec)] it's back to you, Paul. Unidentified speaker [00:47:01-00:47:03 (2 sec)] >> All right, that's Medicosi there in Unidentified speaker [00:47:03-00:47:05 (2 sec)] Mumbai. And that is it for Insight Unidentified speaker [00:47:05-00:47:06 (1 sec)] Horizons. Middle East and Africa up Unidentified speaker [00:47:06-00:47:08 (2 sec)] next. Keep it here with us. This is Unidentified speaker [00:47:08-00:47:12 (4 sec)] Bloomberg.