Trump says Canada will negotiate within three or four weeks

Stocks Waver Ahead of Jobs Data; Trump to Meet Tech CEOs on AI. VONNIE: 5:00 IN NEW YORK CITY, 10:00 IN LONDON. LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY. EQUITY AND BOND SELLOFFS TAKING A PAUSE AFTER TREASURY YIELDS HIT MULTIYEAR HIGHS WITH JOBS DATA AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA ON DECK. OPENAI HITS THE BRAKES TO SET STRONGER SAFEGUARDS. TECH LEADERS EXPECT TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP LATER TODAY. GOLDMAN SACHS COO REPORTEDLY INCHING CLOSER TO THE TOP SEAT TO SUCCEED DAVID SOLOMON. LET'S CHECK MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD BEGINNING IN TOKYO. >> WE HAVE SEEN A BIT OF A PAUSE IN THE BOND SELLOFF BUT STILL WEIGHING ON EQUITY SENTIMENT HERE IN ASIA ESPECIALLY IN JAPAN THE BROADER INDEX DOWN MORE THAN 1% MOSTLY DUE TO BANKS, WORRYING ABOUT HOW FAR YIELDS ARE RISING AND THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. WE KNOW A LOT OF JAPANESE MEGABANKS IN PARTICULAR HAVE A LOT OF EXPOSURE TO THAT U.S. MARKET. NOW TAKE A LOOK AT SHEIN, THE FAST FASHION RETAILER DOWN AROUND 14% AFTER REPORTING MORE THAN 50% PLUNGE IN ITS OPERATING PROFIT. THE COMPANY WHICH DEBUTED IN HONG KONG HAS LOST AROUND $10 MILLION IN MARKET VALUE. IT IS NOT GOING GREAT, MOSTLY SEEMS TO BE DOING TO MOVE RISING PRICES. THE RALLY IN OIL HAS NOT BEEN HELPING. THEY HAD A TOUGH FIRST MONTH ON THE MARKET. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH ALICE FRENCH. LET'S LOOK AT EUROPE WE ARE SEEING BROAD GAINS ACROSS THE BOARD MORE SO IN BRITAIN THAN ELSEWHERE IN EUROPE. IN FRANCE A POTENTIAL PROPOSAL TO INCREASE INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANY TAXES AND THAT'S WEIGHING A BIT ON FRENCH STOCKS. TECH LEADING THE WAY IN EUROPE AND ACROSS THE BOARD. STERLING JUST A LITTLE BIT WEAKER WITH MORE DOLLAR STRENGTH STORY. FIVE DAYS OF GAINS IN SIX SESSIONS HEADED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF GAINS TODAY POTENTIALLY THE DOLLAR HAVING ITS BEST MONTH IN MORE THAN THREE YEARS. THE GERMAN YIELD JUST REPRESENTATIVE OF YIELDS ACROSS THE BOARD IN EUROPE. WE DID GET THE RBA IN AUSTRALIA RAISING OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED SO NOTHING SHOCKING IN THE BOND MARKET AROUND THE WORLD. WE ARE WAITING FOR THE BRITISH PRIME MINISTER TO SPEAK. BRENT CRUDE A LITTLE BIT LOWER TODAY BUT WE ARE OFF OUR HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY BY ABOUT THREE DOLLARS THIS IS SAUDI ARABIA SAYS THE EAST-WEST PIPELINE IS BACK UP AND RUNNING AND WE LOOK TO BE AT LEVELS THAT WE WERE AT JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE WAR. THAT IS CAPPING THE PRICE JUST A LITTLE BIT BUT WE ARE ELEVATED WITH THE WTI OF 9250 RIGHT NOW. EUROPEAN GAS STILL ABOVE SEVEN EUROS PER MEGAWATT HOUR. HAVING THAT MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON BOND YIELDS IN THE UNITED STATES OR ON FUTURES. POTENTIALLY HEADED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF DECLINES. WE SAW THAT YESTERDAY. ONLY TWO TRADING DAYS LEFT IN SEPTEMBER BEFORE WE HAD OCTOBER. FUTURES POINTING TO SLIGHT GAINS WITH MICRON RESULTS LOOKING FORWARD TO RESULTS. THE RUSSELL 2000 FUTURES AND AGAIN AS I SAID FOR YIELDS WE ARE JUST ABOUT A BASIS POINT HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD INCHING EVER CLOSER TO THAT 5% MARK ON THE TWO-YEAR WHICH IS TROUBLING. A MASSIVE MONTH ACROSS THE BOARD FOR YIELDS AT MULTIYEAR HIGHS UP 48 BASIS POINTS ON TWO YEAR YIELDS MORE THAN 30 BASIS POINTS ON THE 30 YEAR YIELD. AND WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH THOSE YIELDS AS MARKETS CONTINUE TO PRICE. LET'S GET TO SOME INDIVIDUAL NUMBERS. LET'S HEAD TO JUSTINA LEE. JUSTINA: STARTING WITH NAVITAS SEMICONDUCTORS WHEN IT ANNOUNCED ITS ONE AND AWARD FROM THE U.S. ARMY RESEARCH LAB TO DEVELOP NEXGEN SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGIES FOR DEFENSE APPLICATIONS. YOU CAN SEE YOU'RE A PRETTY BIG MOVE IN PREMARKET TRADING. WE ALSO GOT A TASTE OF THE START OF THE BANK'S EARNINGS SEASON WITH JEFFREY SPREADING REPORTED A SLUMP IN ASSET MANAGEMENT REVENUES. WE HEARD ABOUT THE BRANDS AND THAT REALLY OVERSHADOWED SOME PRETTY STRONG RESULTS FROM THE U.S. BANKING UNITS AND FROM ITS STOCK TRADERS. ON TO SOME BETTER NEWS, THE FINANCIAL SECTOR JULIUS BAER SURGING TODAY AFTER IT SAID THAT IT'S APPLYING TO RECEIVE SHARE BUYBACKS AT THE END OF A LONG STANDING REGULATORY PROBE IT ALSO MEANS LESS CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AND POTENTIAL SOME LIMITS ON BUSINESS RELATIONSHIPS LIFTED. YOU CAN SEE THE CLOUDS CLEARING THAT'S BEEN HANGING ON FOR SOME TIME. VONNIE: DEFINITELY THE CLOSING OF A NEGATIVE CHAPTER. THANK YOU SO MUCH JUSTINA. SHE WILL BE BACK LATER IN THE HOUR. ALSO COMING UP WE WILL LOOK AT THE NEXT PHASE OF THE AI INVESTMENT BOOM. STAYING ON TECH, SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON SET TO HOST TECH CEOS FOR LUNCH DISCUSSING AI LATER TODAY AS OPENAI SCRAPPED THE DEBUT OF THEIR LATEST ASTRO MODEL OF SAFETY RISKS. ANTHROPIC REPORTEDLY WARNING INVESTORS THAT ITS TECHNOLOGY MAY POSE EXISTENTIAL RISKS TO HUMANITY THAT SAYS BOTH COMPANIES EXPECTED TO BE IN ATTENDANCE. JOINING US IS BLOOMBERG TECH EDITOR. IS THIS CONTINUED TO DANCE WITH EXECUTIVES AND THEIR UNDERLINGS WARNING THAT THERE ARE DANGERS TO THIS TECHNOLOGY AND YET THE IDEA THAT EVERY SOVEREIGN IN THE WORLD WANTS TO BE FIRST IN AI. WE ARE FROM THE U.K. CHANCELLOR AS WELL. WHAT MESSAGE WILL PRESIDENT TRUMP TRY TO IMPART TO THE CEOS TODAY? >> IT IS HARD TO SAY IN ADVANCE BUT SO FAR TRUMP IS PRETTY CONSISTENTLY SIGNALED THAT HE DOES NOT WANT ANY KIND OF AI SLOWDOWN FROM HIS PERSPECTIVE. THE U.S. IS AHEAD GLOBALLY BUT GIVES AN ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ADVANTAGE OF HIS GEOPOLITICAL RIVALS. WITH THE TECH CEOS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO ME THAT HE WILL ANNOUNCE REGULATION THAT WILL CURTAIL THE PROGRESS OF AI. VONNIE: WE HAD THE SLOWING DOWN OF ASTRO THE LATEST MODEL. WHY IS THERE DANGER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND WILL SLOWING DOWN THE DEVELOPING HELP? >> I THINK IT WILL. THE ISSUE IS NOT SO MUCH IT'S A GOOD THING OPENAI IS ACTING RESPONSIBLY IN EVALUATING ITS RULES AFTER ITS MODELS AT VARIOUS MISHAPS OVER THE SUMMER AND SOME CONTAINED -- ESCAPED CONTAINMENT. TO GO AND HACK THIRD-PARTY WEBSITES. SO IT'S GOOD TO DO THIS RETROSPECTIVE AND TESTING OF PREVIOUS AND FUTURE MODELS. THAT IS POSITIVE. WE DON'T HAVE THIS HOLISTIC REGULATION THAT FORCES THE AI COMPANIES TO DO THIS. SO YOU KNOW THE ISSUE IS NOT SO MUCH IT'S NOT BAD THAT OPENAI IS DOING THIS IT'S DEFINITELY A POSITIVE THING. NO REGULATION CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE INDUSTRY. VONNIE: BASICALLY SELF REPORTING ALL OF THIS. AMD BUYING WORLD LABS. $8.2 BILLION FOR THE START UP. IT BASICALLY CHANGES THE MAKEUP OF AMD. WHAT KIND OF COMPANY WILL IT BE, MORE OF A TO NVIDIA? SHONA: IT FEELS LIKE THAT'S THE DIRECTION THEY'RE TRYING TO HEAD IN. OF EDGING FURTHER INTO THE AI SOFTWARE ENVIRONMENT. IT'S ACQUIRED HUGGING FACE WHICH IS A PLATFORM FOR MODEL EVALUATION AND SORT OF COCHAIRING. THEIR WORLD LABS IS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ITERATION. ANOTHER KIND OF FRONTIER LAB THIS FOCUSED ON A DIFFERENT KIND OF AI FOR LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS AS WELL WHICH IS MORE FOCUSED ON THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT. THAT AMD MAY BE SEASON INTEREST IN ROBOTICS AND THE HARDWARE OF THE COMPANIES AI SO IT SENDS A SIGNAL IN THAT DIRECTION. VONNIE: FASCINATING. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US WITH ALL THE TECH NEWS OVERNIGHT. NOW TO TRADE, A U.S. IMPORT BAN ON MOTORCYCLES ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES FROM CANADA WENT INTO EFFECT IN MIDNIGHT EASTERN TIME. JOINING US IS BRENDAN MURRAY. HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IS THIS GOING TO HAVE ON THE CANADIAN ECONOMY. BRENDAN: IT'S NOT THAT I HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL TRADING RELATIONSHIP WHICH AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING LIKE $900 BILLION WORTH OF GOODS THAT FLOW ACROSS THE BORDER. BUT IT IS ABOUT A BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TRADE. AND IF YOU'RE IN THE INDUSTRY THAT'S GETTING HIT IT CERTAINLY GOING TO -- IT'S GOING TO HURT YOUR BUSINESS AND YOUR EMPLOYMENT. SO IT IS SYMBOLICALLY A BIG ISSUE THAT THE U.S. IS RETALIATING AGAINST CANADA'S RETALIATION. BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHERE IT GOES FROM HERE. PRESIDENT TRUMP THINKS THIS PRESSURE WILL BRING CANADA TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE WITHIN THREE OR FOUR WEEKS IS THE TIMETABLE HE ESTIMATED. BUT CANADA HAS DRAWN A PRETTY FIRM LINE AND SAID WE WILL NOT ACCEPT A DEAL THAT'S BAD FOR THE CANADIAN ECONOMY. WE ARE AT LOGGERHEADS BETWEEN THESE TWO TRADING PARTNERS OF THE MOMENT AND IT IS ONE OF THE WORLD'S BIGGEST TRADING RELATIONSHIPS, $900 BILLION. VONNIE: FROM THE STEEL TARIFFS ANOTHER CASUALTY IN CANADA. BRENDAN: IT LOOKS LIKE THE MILLS GOING TO SLOW PRODUCTION AND AT THE SAME TIME YOU OF THE WHITE HOUSE TRUMPETING THIS NEW STEEL PLANT IN IOWA YESTERDAY THAT WOULD DRAW IRON ORE FROM MINNESOTA WHICH IS A BORDER STATE TO CANADA AND SO YOU HAVE THE BEGINNINGS OF WHAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WOULD LIKE TO SEE AND THAT'S DOMESTICALLY PRODUCED AND MINED STEEL ON THE RAW MATERIALS THAT GO IN. SO THE STEEL TARIFFS HAVE BEEN IN EFFECT FOR YEARS NOW AND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS SAYING THAT HIS PRODUCTION CANADA HAS THAT WE WOULD LIKE TO RESHORE TO THE U.S.. VONNIE: THE PRESIDENT ANNOUNCING THAT PLAN THAT WOULD CREATE MINING AND MANUFACTURING JOBS IN A BATTLEGROUND STATE THIS YEAR. THANK YOU SO MUCH BRENDAN MURRAY. NOW TO THE TOP STORIES TRENDING ON THE TERMINAL. FIRST UP IRANIAN OFFICIALS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT REACHING A DEAL WITH WASHINGTON. DELEGATION BEFORE THE U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN NOVEMBER. SOURCES TELL BLOOMBERG THE TWO SIDES MADE LITTLE PROGRESS IN TALKS LAST WEEK AND TEHRAN BELIEVES HAS A HIGH CHANCE THE CONFLICT WILL ESCALATE AFTER THE NOVEMBER VOTE. ATTACK STRATEGY POPULARIZED IS FACING A POTENTIAL CRACKDOWN FROM U.S. AUTHORITIES. THE IRS'S SAYS IT PLANS TO ISSUE GUIDANCE AND MAY TAKE OTHER STEPS TARGETING CERTAIN TRADES MONEY MANAGERS USED TO GENERATE LOSSES AND CLIENTS TAXES ON INCOME. IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER THE TRAGEDY -- STRATEGIES TRADE FOLD IRS CONCERNS. AND SHARES OF JEFFRIES CONTINUING TO FALL IN PREMARKET TRADING AFTER REVENUE ASSET MANAGEMENT BUSINESS SAW MORE THAN 50% UNIT BROUGHT IN 85.6 MILLION DOLLARS IN PRINCIPAL THIRD QUARTER DOWN FROM US 170 7 MILLION A YEAR AGO. BUSINESSES ARE DEALING WITH SPURRED BETS ON FIRST BRANDS AND IRANIAN WORLD. JOHN WALDRON INCHING CLOSER TO THE TOP POST AT GOLDMAN. THAT'S NEXT, THIS IS BLOOMBERG. VONNIE: THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." I'M VONNIE QUINN NEW YORK. GOLDMAN SACHS' -- HE COULD SUCCEED DAVID SOLOMON AS CEO AS EARLY AS NEXT YEAR. JOINING US NOW IS BLOOMBERG OPINION COLUMNIST PAUL DAVIES. THIS WAS IN THE CARDS FOR A LONG TIME. THEY ARE PEAS IN A POD. WOULD IT BE A GOOD TIME FOR SOLOMON TO LEAVE AS CEO NEXT YEAR? PAUL: I THINK IT WOULD. HE HAS BEEN THERE ABOUT EIGHT YEARS NOW. THE EARLY YEARS OF HIS TENURE WERE A BIT OF A STRUGGLE. HE BUILT ON WHAT LLOYD BLANKFEIN STARTED WITH THE CONSUMER BUSINESS, THE MARKETS SAVING A BUSINESS, AND KIND OF WENT FOR THAT AS THE GREAT HOPE FOR HOW THEY WOULD GENERATE A LOT OF RELIABLE, RECURRING REVENUE STREAMS, BUT WITH SOME BACK DEALS AND THEY DO NOT HAVE THE MANAGEMENT SKILLS TO RUN THE CREDIT CARD BUSINESS THE WAY THEY THOUGHT THEY WOULD, AND THAT ENDED UP INCREDIBLY UNPOPULAR AMONG SENIOR GOLDMAN BANKERS, AND THEY HAD TO REVERSE OUT OF IT. SINCE THEN, SHARES HAVE DONE FANTASTICALLY WELL. THE TRADING BUSINESS IS ABSOLUTELY FLYING. THE INVESTMENT BANK IS DOING INCREDIBLE AGAIN. HE IS, IF NOT VINDICATED FROM HIS EARLIER STRATEGY, HE HAS AT LEAST RECOVERED FROM IT. VONNIE: THOSE SHARES ARE UP AROUND 300-ODD PERCENT SINCE HE BECAME CEO. BUT JOHN WALDRON, WILL HE BE A DIFFERENT KIND OF LEADER? WHAT WILL HIS PRIORITIES BE? PAUL: LIKE YOU SAY, THEIR CAREERS BEEN QUITE PARALLEL. VERY SIMILAR CAREERS, QUITE SIMILAR BANKERS IN LOTS OF WAYS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE A DIFFERENCE OF STYLE. DAVID SOLOMON IS QUITE A GRUFF SPEAKER, YOU CAN BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE. HE IS VERY CHALLENGING WITH PEOPLE I THINK. JOHN WALDRON HAS A MUCH MORE ENGAGED, KIND OF LIKE A HUMAN WAY OF DEALING WITH PEOPLE. ONE OF THE IMPORTANT THINGS HE DID DURING ALL THE ISSUES THEY HAD WITH THE CONSUMER BUSINESS, WHEN THERE WERE A LOT OF COMPLAINTS AND UPSET AMONG THE PARTNERS AND SENIOR BANKERS AT GOLDMAN, IS I THINK HE PLAYED A STRONG DIPLOMATIC ROLE, HELPING TO SMOOTH OVER CRACKS, AND ALSO HELPING CONVINCE DAVID SOLOMON TO REVERSE OUT OF THAT. I THINK IT WILL BE A DIFFERENCE OF STYLE AS MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE. VONNIE: WHAT ELSE DOES THE BANK NEED TO WORRY ABOUT NOW? PAUL: WHEN YOU GET A TRANSITION LIKE THIS, IF IT IS COMING, AND THE BANK ITSELF IS SAYING NO HARD TIMETABLE YET, BUT WHEN YOU GET A TRANSITION LIKE THIS, IT IS LIKE THE NEXT LEVEL OF JOBS IN COMPETITION FOR THOSE THAT THEN POSSIBLY BECOMES THE POINT OF TENSION. WALDRON HAS BEEN THE OBVIOUS AND KIND OF ASSUMED CEO KHADIJA FOR A WHILE ALREADY, BUT BELOW HIM, THERE ARE THREE AT LEAST VERY SENIOR BANKERS , ALL OF WHOM MIGHT WANT TO BECOME SOMETHING -- FOR THE NEXT LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE CANNOT BE THAT COO, PRESIDENT, OR SOMETHING AKIN TO WHAT WALDRON WAS DOING. IT WILL BE KEEPING HIM HAPPY AND THEN THE RANKS OF PEOPLE BELOW THEM THAT WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY DISRUPTIVE AND CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS. VONNIE: AND WALDRON, I-57, IS NOT AN OLD MAN BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION. AS HUMAN ASSEMBLY LINES WILL BECOME -- HOW WILL HE CHANGE THE BANK IN TERMS OF AI? PAUL: THIS IS A FASCINATING QUESTION. IN MANY WAYS, NOBODY KNOWS EXACTLY WHAT THE AI TOOLS OR -- BANKS OR ANY COMPANIES WILL LOOK LIKE YET. ONE OF THE THINGS THEY ARE TRYING TO DO AND OTHER BANKS ARE TRYING TO DO IS USE AI TOOLS TO CAPTURE AND CONTROL AS MUCH INTELLIGENCE FROM WITHIN THE BUSINESS AS I POSSIBLY CAN AND AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE TO HELP GENERATE FURTHER LEADS FOR IDEAS OF WHAT THEY MIGHT SELL TO WHO AND WHEN. I THINK ONE OF THE REALLY INTERESTING THINGS IS GOING TO BE HOW FAR UP THE PAY SCALE DEWDROPS BECOME A JOB WHERE YOU ARE FOLLOWING INSTRUCTIONS FROM A COMPUTER VERSUS BEING SOMEBODY WHO HAS AI AS THEIR OWN PRODUCTIVITY TOOL AND IS SOMEHOW ABOVE THE MACHINERY AND USES AI TO ADD VALUE OR PERFORM THEIR ROLE IN AN EVER MORE PRODUCTIVE WAY. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE GUIDANCE. PAUL DAVIES OF BLOOMBERG OPINION. VONNIE: TIME FOR YOUR FRONT PAGE NEWS. THE NEW YORK TIMES LEADING WITH AN INTERNAL FBI MEMO WHICH SUGGESTS THAT HACKERS MAY HAVE STOLEN SENSITIVE INFORMATION ON ALL ITS EMPLOYEES. INVESTIGATORS STILL TRYING TO PIECE TOGETHER HOW THE BREACH HAPPENED AFTER A GROUP KNOWN AS SHINY HUNTERS REVEALED IT HAD STOLEN DETAILS FROM THE FBI PORTAL. NEXT UP ON THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, IRAN'S ABILITY TO CHOKEHOLD THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ -- TO BOLSTER ITS POSITION. U.S. NAVY AND GULF OIL PRODUCERS HAVE BEEN BETTER AT FENDING OFF IRANIAN ATTACKS, ALLOWING TANKERS TO LEAVE THE STRAIT WITH MIDDLE EASTERN OIL EXPORTS. AND BLOOMBERG REPORTING CHINA HAS GIVEN ITS STRONGEST SIGNAL YET IT WILL BE WITH THE -- MOVE WITH GREATER URGENCY TO COUNTER A DEEPENING SLOWDOWN. FOR MORE ON WHAT MEASURES CHINA MIGHT TAKE, LET'S BRING IN BLOOMBERG'S ALAN WONG. WHAT DO WE KNOW THAT CHINA MIGHT IN ORDER TO REACH THE TARGET IT SET FOR ITSELF? ALAN: THIS IS BASED ON A STATE COUNCIL MEETING, AFTER WHICH CHINA RELEASED A STATEMENT IN WHICH THEY USED STRONGER THAN TYPICAL LANGUAGE TO DESCRIBE THE WORRIES THEY HAVE ABOUT CHINA'S GROWTH PACE AND IT REFLECTS PROBLEMS EMERGING WITHOUT SAYING EXACTLY WHAT SHE OF THAT DATE AMOUNT TO SIGNAL THAT CHINA IS READY TO RELEASE SOME FRESH NEW STIMULUS, AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUSLY, WHEN THEY ALWAYS INSISTED ON FASTER IMPLEMENTATION OF EXISTING STIMULUS POLICIES. WHAT COULD THOSE BE? THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND FIND OUT. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT WHAT CHINA HAS IN MIND IS NOT EXACTLY THE KIND OF BAZOOKA LIKE STIMULUS WE HAD SEEN IN 2024, WHEN GROWTH WAS REALLY DIPPING UNDER, RISKING UNDERSHOOTING THE GROWTH GOAL SET FOR THAT YEAR. SO FAR THIS YEAR, THE GROWTH -- ANNUAL GROWTH IS STILL WITHIN THE RANGE CHINA SET FOR ITSELF. BUT THERE ARE MOUNTING SIGNS THAT THIS QUARTER MIGHT DIP BELOW THE 4.5 PERCENT TARGET. BUT THE GAP IS NOT MASSIVE, AND THAT IS WHY CHINA HAS USED A STRONGER SIGNAL BUT HAS NOT GONE VERY GUNG HO WHEN IT COMES TO ANNOUNCING ANYTHING REMOTELY LIKE WHAT WE SAW IN 2024. VONNIE: THE HOUSING SECTOR HAS BEEN BELEAGUERED FOR SO MANY YEARS AND CHINA HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO GET INVOLVED, BUT THERE IS -- IS THERE A SIGN IT MAY NOW ACTUALLY DECIDE TO GET INVOLVED IN HOUSING? ALAN: THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF PROGRESS IN THAT DEPARTMENT. CHINA'S LATEST STATEMENT SUGGESTS CHINA IS ACTIVELY STUDYING POLICIES TO STABILIZE THE HOUSING MARKET. IT IS ALSO STUDYING POLICIES TO BOOST HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HELP WITH YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT. THE CONCRETE MEASURES THAT MAY COME OUT OF IT ARE NOT YET KNOWN, BUT THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN TAKEN UP BY INVESTORS AS THE STRONGEST SIGN THEY HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR THAT POLICYMAKERS WILL DO MORE THAN EXPECTED. VONNIE: ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU FOR THAT. BLOOMBERG'S ALAN WONG. COMING UP, WE WILL SPEAK WITH COLIN PURDIE OF MANULIFE. WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE EXPANSION OF THE AI STORY IN INVESTMENT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. 5:30 AM IN NEW YORK CITY, GOOD MORNING I'M VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. EQUITY AND BOND SELLOFF TAKING A PAUSE AFTER TREASURY YIELDS HIT MULTIYEAR HIGHS. JOBS DATA ON DECK TODAY. OPENAI HITS THE BRAKES ON REVIEWING AND AI MODEL SET STRONGER SAFEGUARDS. TECH LEADERS EXPECTED TO BE WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP LATER TODAY. GOLDMAN SACHS COO JOHN WALDRON INCHING CLOSER TO THE FIRM'S TOP SEAT TO SUCCEED DAVID SOLOMON. TRADING DAY -- TWO TRADING DAYS LEFT IN SEPTEMBER BEFORE WE HIT OCTOBER. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE FUTURES ON OIL TURNING AROUND TRADING HIGHER. BRENT CRUDE ABOVE $105 A BARREL. EUROPEAN GAS FUTURES AT 72 AND CHANGE PER MEGAWATT HOUR. NOT HAVING TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT RIGHT NOW ON EQUITIES OF THE BOND UNIVERSE. WE SAW A SELLOFF YESTERDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT HAVE FRACTIONALLY MORE WE WILL SEE IF THIS WEAKNESS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AFTER YESTERDAY'S TEXT SELLOFF. WE HAVE MACRON EARNINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO TOMORROW. YIELDS WISE WE ARE HIGHER MASSIVELY HIGHER FOR THE TWO YEAR YIELD TALKING ABOUT 59 BASIS POINTS. ALSO INCHING CLOSER TO THAT 5% ON THE TWO YEAR YIELD. BUT WE ARE JUST UP ABOUT A BASIS POINT IN THE ASIA SESSION. THE RBA RAISING RATES. LET'S GET TO SOME INDIVIDUAL MARKET MOVERS WITH JUSTINA LEE. JUSTINA: STARTING WITH SOME BIOTECH NEWS. ASTRAZENECA ANNOUNCED IT WILL INVEST $2 MILLION IN SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS TO WORK TOGETHER ON A CANCER MEDICINE THAT COULD BE COMBINED WITH A BRITISH DRUGMAKERS OTHER TREATMENTS. WE CAN SEE HERE A PRETTY BIG REACTION TODAY. MOVING ON TO OTHER CENTERS. ANOTHER BIG NEWS FOR FIFO. WITH BILL PULTE ANNOUNCING FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC WILL USE ONE PRICING GRID BUT THEY WILL ALSO ADD ANOTHER SOURCE FOR CREDIT SCORES FROM VANTAGE SCORE. THAT IS ALL ABOUT INTRODUCING MORE COMPETITION INTO THE CREDIT SCORE MARKET IN THE U.S. SO WE CAN SEE A PRETTY BIG DROP FOR PHI CO. IN THE PREMARKET. STICKING ONTO ANOTHER FINANCIAL STOCK OVER HERE IN EUROPE A BIG NEWS HERE TODAY FOR JULIUS BAER WHICH HAS SAID IT IS APPLYING TO START SHARE BUYBACKS AGAIN AFTER THE END OF A LONG-STANDING SWISS REGULATORY PROBE. IT MEANS POTENTIALLY LOWER CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AND FEWER LIMITS ON SOME OF ITS BUSINESS RELATIONSHIPS. SO A BIG SIGH OF RELIEF IN EUROPE FOR JULIUS BAER. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH THAT IS JUSTINA LEE. STOCK FUTURES DRIFTING UP A LITTLE BIT. WE DID HAVE THAT SELLOFF, INVESTORS AWAITING JOLTS DATA. WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THE NONFARM PAYROLLS ON FRIDAY. LET'S GET TO OUR GUEST. COLIN, THE EQUAL WEIGHT S&P 500 HASN'T BEEN DOING SO WELL. DID THE FED KILL OFF THE ROTATION? COLIN: TO SOME DEGREE YES BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT THE S&P NOW WE ARE SELECTIVE WE ARE NOT DEFENSIVE. WITH THE MARKETS TALKING ABOUT IS THIS LEVEL OF YIELDS. WE ARE SEEING THEM INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THIS IS GIVING THE EQUITY MARKET SOME PAUSE. IF YOU LOOK AT HISTORY SUGGESTING WHEN YIELDS ARE AROUND THESE LEVELS SOME OF THESE EQUITY MULTIPLES REALLY DO COMPRESS AND ANALYSTS ARE LOOKING AT THE MARKET THINKING WHICH SECTORS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS, IS IT MORE CONSUMER LED AND ULTIMATELY WHERE THESE YIELDS GOING TO GO FROM HERE. IT'S GIVING THE MARKET PAUSE FOR THOUGHT. WE THINK THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES IN THERE. A STRONG ECONOMY, EARNINGS ARE STILL GOOD. IT'S ABOUT PICKING YOUR SPOTS. VONNIE: THE MARKET WAS PATIENT WHEN WE LOOK TO THE AMOUNT TREASURIES HAVE MOVED. THE MARKET HAS BEEN ABLE TO WITHSTAND QUITE A LOT. DOES A TWO-YEAR YIELDS TOP 5%? COLIN: I THINK WITH A TWO YEAR YIELD YOU'VE GOT TO LOOK AT WHO IS IT GOING TO IMPACT AND WHEN. THE MARKET HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY A I REALLY IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND YEARS. IF YOU SPEAK TO AI COMPANIES AS WE DO YOU LISTEN TO THEM OF THE PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS THEY ARE CONFIDENT THEIR GROWTH CAN COME THROUGH THESE YIELDS AND PRODUCT COMPANIES WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. FOR THOSE THAT MAY BE MORE INDEBTED LOOKING AT THE LOW END OF THE CONSUMER MARKET WE KNOW SOME OF THESE CONSUMERS ARE BEING IMPACTED BY HIGHER YIELDS PAIRED WITH MORTGAGE RATES WHERE THEY ARE. IT WILL BE ABOUT BEING SELECTIVE AND IMPACTING DIFFERENT SEGMENTS OF THE MARKET IN DIFFERENT WAYS AND THAT'S WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO WORK THROUGH. VONNIE: IT DOES SOUND LIKE YOU'RE SAYING AI COMPANIES AND RELATED COMPANIES WILL BE MORE RESILIENT THROUGH THIS. ARE YOU STILL BULLISH THAT THAT WILL STACK? COLIN: NOT POSITIVE AND BULLISH ON EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE. I THINK IT IS ABOUT BEING SELECTIVE. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE ENABLERS IN THE AI TRADE AND TRYING TO WORK OUT WHERE ARE SOME OF THE DUTCH THESE IN TERMS OF SUPPLY CHAIN WHERE WE SEEING SOME OF THE DELAYS. WE ARE POSITIVE ON AREAS LIKE SEMICONDUCTOR AND POSITIVE ON MEMORY. THE MARKETS BECOMING A LITTLE BIT MORE DISCERNING IN TERMS OF HOW IT'S LOOKING AT A EARNINGS AND FUTURE EARNINGS GROWTH. WE'VE SEEN SOME PEOPLE EXTRAPOLATE CURRENT EARNINGS FORWARD AND THERE'S BEEN SOME QUESTIONS AROUND THOSE VALUATIONS. WE DO FEEL THAT AI IS HERE TO STAY. IT WILL PERVADE EVERY PART OF OUR PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL LIVES. IT IS ABOUT MAKING SURE YOU PICK THE RIGHT SPOTS. LET'S BE CLEAR IS STILL NASCENT THIS TECHNOLOGY. THERE WILL BE WINNERS AND LOSERS GOING FORWARD. VONNIE: WITH CERTAIN AREAS SELLING OFF INDUSTRIALS AS AN INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVE SECTORS, THERE ARE FEWER PLACES TO HIDE IN THE EQUITY MARKET. WOULD YOU DO THAT TO GET SOME SAFETY. COLIN: WE ARE A LITTLE BIT CAUTIOUS ON THE U.S. BOND MARKET. WE RETAINED UNDER UNDERWEIGHT DURATION POSITION. WE THINK IN THE SHORT TERM THERE IS BIAS TO THE UPSIDE IN TERMS OF YIELD. WHEN YOU LOOK GLOBALLY WE THINK THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES THERE AS WELL. SO WE ARE LOOKING IN AREAS SUCH AS CANADA AND AUSTRALIA. WE THINK THEY ARE COMING TOWARDS THE END OF THEIR HIKING CYCLE SO HIGH QUALITY WE THINK MAKES SENSE. LOOKING FOR EXAMPLE THE JAPANESE BOND OPTION OVERNIGHT THE LONG END WHEN YOU SWITCH THAT BACK TO DOLLARS. WE THINK IT IS GOOD TO BE DIVERSIFIED. WE THINK IN CERTAIN AREAS WHERE WE THINK IT WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BIT UNLOVED BUT CERTAINLY THESE YIELD LEVELS OVER THE MEDIUM TERM THERE ARE SOME GREAT OPPORTUNITIES IN FIXED INCOME AND THAT'S WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO AVAIL OURSELVES OF. VONNIE: WHAT ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT CHINA GIVEN WARMING RELATIONS WITH IN THE U.S. AND CHINA BUT ALSO THIS IDEA THERE MIGHT BE STIMULUS OR AT LEAST AN ARRAY OF SIGNALS COMING DOWN THE PIKE THAT MIGHT HELP THE ECONOMY. COLIN: THE STIMULUS OF THE CAME THROUGH WOULD BE GOOD NEWS. THIS IS REALLY EIGHT TO STREET ECONOMY RIGHT NOW. WE HAVE THE NEW ECONOMY AND NEW TECH, CHINA IS TRYING TO BE SELF-SUFFICIENT IN TACT. SO THERE'S A LOT OF INVESTMENT GOING INTO CERTAIN AREAS EV AUTOMATION ROBOTICS. AND THAT PART OF THE MARKET IS REALLY DRIVING FORWARD. I THINK CHINA HAS BEEN AT SOME COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES AND A LOT OF THOSE AREAS. THE THING HOLDING CHINA BACK TO SOME DEGREE IS PROPERTY IS STILL IN A BIT OF THE DOLDRUMS. CONSUMER DEMAND IS NOT COMING THROUGH. IF THE AUTHORITIES COULD BOOST TO CONSUMER DEMAND AND REAL CONSUMPTION GOING FORWARD IF YOU HAVE AN IMPACT ON PROPERTY I THINK I'M NOT A LARGE AREA OF THE ECONOMY MOVING FORWARD. THAT PUTS IN A MORE POSITIVE POSITION. VONNIE: HAVE YOU BEEN INVESTING IN SOME OF THE NON-US AI COMPANIES AS WELL SO NOT JUST CHINA. WE SEE PLENTY OF IPO'S IN SOUTH KOREAN COMPANIES RECENTLY. COLIN: WE TAKE A GLOBAL APPROACH WHEN IT COMES TO INVESTING. WE WERE LOOKING AT TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA, THERE'S A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES YOU SEEN THE RETURNS ON THE TAIWANESE STOCK MARKET THIS YEAR. TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA THEY ARE REALLY AT THE CENTER OF THE AI ROLLOUT. THIS IS THE BIGGEST INDUSTRIAL ROLLOUT WE'VE SEEN IN DECADES. THE DEAD CENTER OF ADOPTION SO THERE'S DEFINITELY OPPORTUNITIES BUT EVEN FURTHER AFIELD WITH THE DATA CENTERS, THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY GLOBALLY AND I THINK THE RIGHT APPROACH IS TO MAKE SURE YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE. VONNIE: NOT MUCH MORE THAN ONE MONTH AWAY THAT WE WILL SEE THE U.S. MIDTERMS. ARE YOU OR YOUR CLIENTS THINKING ABOUT HOW THE ENVIRONMENT CHANGES POST MIDTERMS DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME? COLIN: WE TRY AND LOOK THROUGH THESE EVENTS IN THE BOTTOM LINE IS NO ONE REALLY KNOWS WHAT CAN HAPPEN YET SO WE HAVE AN IDEA DEPENDING ON VARIOUS OUTCOMES AS TO HOW IT MIGHT IMPACT THE MARKET. SOME OF THOSE UNDERLYING FORCES OR LONG-TERM FACTORS. I THINK IT'S BEEN GREAT TO SEE THE FED ACT OF THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND SESSIONS IN TERMS OF THEIR VIEW ON THE ECONOMY THAT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT. POLITICS CAN IN TERMS OF THINGS A FISCAL STIMULUS AND A LOT OF BOND VIGILANTES OUT THERE TO SEE WHAT'S IN IT, BECAUSE WE HAVE A LOT OF COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD SPENDING THE MONEY IT'S PUTTING ON THEIR BONDS AND YIELD CURVES WE NEED TO SEE IN THE U.S. AND ELSEWHERE THAT CONTINUES. VONNIE: THE MARKET IS PRICING AND FOR INTEREST RATE INCREASES THIS CYCLE FOR THE FED OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS OR SO, WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR AND HOW MANY WILL COME BEFORE THE END OF THIS YEAR. COLIN: WE THINK ONE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. AND WE ARE PROBABLY THINKING A BIT LESS NEXT YEAR SO ONE TO TWO BUT OBVIOUSLY LOOK ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS IS THE KEY DRIVER HERE. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN. WE SEE THE OIL PRICE UP 105 IN THE LAST FEW DAYS TERRY THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON INFLATION. WE KNOW THE FED IS LOOKING AT THIS AND THEY ARE KEEN TO GET THAT INFLATION NUMBER DOWN. WE HAVE TO SEE THE GEOPOLITICS AND I LIKE THE FACT WE HAVE A PRETTY STRONG ECONOMY IN THE U.S. AS WELL. WERE PROBABLY THINKING A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN THE MARKET AT THIS POINT. BUT WHEN THE FACTS CHANGE SO CAN OUR OPINION. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. TO ALL THE TOP STORIES TRENDING ON THE TERMINAL, IRANIAN OFFICIALS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT REACHING A DEAL WITH WASHINGTON BEFORE THE U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN NOVEMBER. SOURCES TELL BLOOMBERG THE TWO SIDES MADE LITTLE PROGRESS IN TALKS LAST WEEK IN TEHRAN BELIEVES IS A HIGH CHANCE THE CONFLICT WILL ESCALATE AFTER THE NOVEMBER VOTE. ATTACK STRATEGY BY A QR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT FACING A POTENTIAL CRACKDOWN FROM U.S. AUTHORITIES PAY THE IRS PLANS TO ISSUE GUIDANCE AND MAY TAKE OTHER STEPS TARGETING CERTAIN TRADES MONEY MANAGERS USED TO GENERATE LOSSES ON ORDINARY INCOME. IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER THE STRATEGIES TRADES FALL WITHIN GUIDANCE. GOLDMAN SACHS DISCUSSING A PLAN THAT COULD PUT SEAN WALTON IN THE TOP JOB AS EARLY AS NEXT YEAR. THE BANK DISCUSSED THE CEO SUCCEEDING DAVID SOLOMON AS CEO TOWARDS THE END OF 27 OR 28. GOLDMAN SAYS THERE IS NO DEFINITIVE TIMELINE OF SUCCESSION. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." PRESIDENT TRUMP AND SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON SET TO HOST AI LEADERS LATER TODAY. THE LUNCH MEETING COMES AS OPENAI SCRAPS THE DEBUT OF ITS LATEST ASTRA MODEL OVER SAFETY RISKS AND ANTHROPIC REPORTEDLY WARNS INVESTORS THAT THE TECHNOLOGY MAY POSE EXISTENTIAL RISKS TO VANITY. BLOOMBERG'S NEIL CAMPLING -- TO HUMANITY. BLOOMBERG'S NEIL CAMPLING JOINS US NOW FOR MORE. PRESUMABLY, PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL PUSH ON THE FACT THE U.S. NEEDS TO LEAD ON AI, BUT WHAT WILL THE MESSAGE FROM THE LEADERS OF OPENAI AND ANTHROPIC BE? NEIL: I WISH WE HAD AN INVITE SO WE COULD LISTEN IN ON THE CONVERSATION. IT WOULD MAKE FOR FASCINATING CONVERSATION, I AM SURE. THE AI MODELS OBVIOUSLY MOVE AT SUCH A FAST PACE. IT IS A BALANCING ACT IN TERMS OF THE SECURITY RISKS WE MENTIONED. LET'S NOT SUGARCOAT THIS IN TERMS OF ANTHROPIC'S IPO FILING THAT PEOPLE ARE SAID TO HAVE SEEN. THERE IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF RISK MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT, EXISTENTIAL RISK TO HUMANITY -- IT BEGGARS BELIEF. AT THE SAME TIME, WE HAVE TO ALLOW THESE MODELS TO WORK IN SAFE ENVIRONMENTS. THIS IS WHY THE LATEST ASTRA HAS BEEN DELAYED, THE LAUNCH. IT IS NOT THAT 6.0 ORIGINAL MODEL BUT THE UPDATE THAT HAS BEEN DELAYED. THE U.S. NEEDS TO LEAD IN AI AND STAY AHEAD OF THE COMPETITION COMING OUT, THE CHINESE MODELS, BUT IT HAS TO DO THAT IN A SAFE AND REGULATED ENVIRONMENT. IN HISTORY, TECH HAS BEEN WELL REGULATED, NOT NEEDING GUARDRAILS PUT DOWN BY GOVERNMENT, TO ENABLE INNOVATION. IT IS BALANCING THOSE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES. IT WILL BE FASCINATING TO SEE WHAT COMES OUT OF THIS LUNCH. AND WE HAVE OPENAI'S DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE OUT OF SAN FRANCISCO TODAY, WHEN SAM ALTMAN WILL TAKE THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE AUSTRALIAN BREACHES LAST WEEK. VONNIE: ELSEWHERE -- WE ARE STILL IN THE AI WORLD -- BUT AMD IS BUYING WORLD LABS, THE FEI-FEI LI LAB, $8.2 BILLION CARE WHAT KIND OF COMPANY WILL IT MAKE AMD? NEIL: IF YOU LOOK AT WORLD LABS AND WHAT THEY DO IN TERMS OF THE 3D REAL-WORLD MODELS THEY MAKE IN AI, IT IS COMPETING WITH A DIVISION OF NVIDIA, COSMOS, AND GOOGLE'S DEEPMIND HAS THESE TOOLS AS WELL. IF YOU LIKE USING APPLICATIONS OF THE PHYSICAL WORLD -- IT WILL ENABLE AMD, OVER TIME TO PRODUCE AND AI ECOSYSTEM TO COMPETE WITH THE NVIDIA ECOSYSTEM OVER TIME. A $.2 BILLION IS A BIG PRICE TO PAY, BUT THAT IS THE PRICE YOU HAVE TO PAY TO BRING AI INTO CAPITAL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. VONNIE: AND IT SHOULD PAY OFF. I AM SURE THAT IS A SPECULATION AMD HAS MADE. WHEN YOU PAY AN ALTERNATIVE TO NVIDIA, WOULD YOU SAY THEY ARE SIMILAR COMPANIES OR WOULD YOU PICK ONE OVER THE OTHER DEPENDING WHAT KIND OF COMPANY YOU ARE? NEIL: WITH BOTH OF THE MASSIVE TECH WEIGHTS OVER THAT DECADES, YOU MOSTLY END UP WITH TWO PRIMARY ECOSYSTEMS. THERE IS SPACE FOR TWO MAIN U.S. MODELS TO COEXIST. CERTAINLY IN TERMS OF THE COST OF THE AI CLUSTERS, GPU'S AND OTHER TECHNOLOGIES. AMD HAS CERTAINLY BEEN BECOMING A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE NVIDIA SYSTEM, SO THIS PROBABLY INCREASES TECH KNOW HOW IN-HOUSE. VONNIE: THANK YOU SO MUCH. BLOOMBERG'S NEIL CAMPLING. TRADE TENSIONS ESCALATING IN NORTH AMERICA. THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION BANDING PRODUCTS FROM CANADA IN RESPONSE TO RETALIATORY TARIFFS ON SOME U.S. GOODS. LET'S GET MORE WITH BLOOMBERG'S BRENDAN MURRAY. THOSE HAVE GONE INTO EFFECT. DOES THAT MEAN WE WILL NOT SEE THINGS LIKE MOTORCYCLES COMING OVER THE BORDER? BRENDAN: EXACTLY. THE U.S. CUSTOMS AGENCY ISSUED AN ADVISORY LATE YESTERDAY THAT AT ANY OF THESE PRODUCTS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO THE BAN ARE FORBIDDEN FROM COMING INTO THE U.S. IT IS A MUCH BLUNTER INSTRUMENT THAN TARIFFS. IT BASICALLY SAYS YOU CANNOT TRADE IN THESE GOOD AT ALL ANYMORE. THE OVERALL IMPACT IS HITTING SOMETHING AROUND $1 BILLION WORTH OF CANADIAN IMPORTS. THAT IS LESS THAN 1% OF THE OVERALL RELATIONSHIP, NINE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS IN GOODS AND SERVICES THAT CROSS THE BORDER EACH YEAR. IT IS A SMALL IMPACT ECONOMICALLY, BUT IT CERTAINLY DOES PUT THE PRESSURE ON POLITICIANS, WHO WILL HEAR COMPLAINTS FROM THESE INDUSTRIES THAT ARE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE LOSS OF BUSINESS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER. VONNIE: AND NO DOUBT DOWN THE ROAD AT SOME POINT, IT MAY HAVE REAL IMPACT. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CASUALTIES FROM THE STEEL TARIFFS AND OTHER MILLS PARTIALLY SHUTTING DOWN OR EVEN CLOSING DOWN. BRENDAN: EXACTLY. THE U.S. HAS HAD TARIFFS ON CANADIAN STEEL FOR YEARS NOW, AND THE IMPACT HAS BEEN SLOW, BUT IT IS DEFINITELY DETRIMENTAL TO CANADA'S PRODUCTION OF STEEL. THE U.S. HAS A POLICY GOAL OF RESHORING THAT PRODUCTION, AND THE PRESIDENT AND HIS ADMINISTRATION YESTERDAY MADE A BIG DEAL ABOUT THIS NEW STEEL MILL THAT WILL BE DEVELOPED IN IOWA, TO BE FED WITH MINNESOTA IRON ORE. SO WE ARE SEEING THE BEGINNINGS OF SOME OF THE DISRUPTIONS THE TARIFFS FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP ARE DESIGNED TO DO, AND THAT IS TO CLOSE OFF SOME TRADE WITH A BIG TRADING PARTNER WITH CANADA AND RE-SURE THAT PRODUCTION TO THE U.S. WHETHER THAT INVESTMENT ULTIMATELY FULLY PLAYS OUT, IT IS SOMETHING LIKE $15 BILLION BID FOR THE NEXT THREE OR FOUR YEARS, IS YET TO BE SEEN. AND WHETHER THE ECONOMICS WILL SUPPORT THAT, BUT THAT IS THE GOAL. THE U.S., -- THE U.S.-CANADA TRADE RELATIONSHIP SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK, AND NEITHER SIDE LOOKS TO GO TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE ANYTIME SOON. VONNIE: EVEN AS WE HOPSCOTCH AROUND WITH TRADE DEALS, INDIA TALKS ARE STILL GOING ON. HOW MANY YEARS LATER IS THIS NOW? BRENDAN: EXACTLY. THE INDIA DEAL WAS ONE OF THE FIRST ONES THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCED LAST YEAR, OR THE FRAMEWORK OF A DEAL, BUT ALL THE DETAILS HAVE STILL YET TO BE WORKED OUT. THE INDIAN TRADE MINISTER IS COMING TO WASHINGTON TO TRY TO MAKE PROGRESS ON THOSE TALKS. THE G20 TRADE MINISTERS ARE MEETING THIS WEEK IN MILWAUKEE, SO WE WILL SEE LOTS OF THE SIDEBAR MEETINGS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND SOME OF THESE G20 TRADE MINISTERS. SO SOME OF THESE ISSUES COULD GET WORKED OUT OR ADVANCED, BUT A LOT OF THEM ARE VERY HARD TO PUT TOGETHER. AND THE INDIA-U.S. TRADE TALKS ARE THE PERFECT EXAMPLE OF A DEAL YOU THINK YOU HAVE DONE, BUT ONCE YOU GET DOWN TO THE FINE PRINT, IT IS HARD TO GET IT OVER THE GOAL LINE. VONNIE: YEAH, STILL WAITING ON THAT ONE. THANK YOU. THAT IS BLOOMBERG'S TRADE CZAR BRENDAN MURRAY. COMING UP, MORE DATA ON DECK AND LOTS OF FED SPEAK WE GET YOU PREPARED FOR YOUR TRADING DAY. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. VONNIE: THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." I'M VONNIE QUINN IN NEW YORK. A LOOK AHEAD AT WHAT IS IN YOUR TUESDAY SESSION. JOEL STATED AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA. THAT -- THEN A MARATHON OF FED SPEAK. AND PRESIDENT AND SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON SET TO MEET WITH TECH CEOS, AND THE DISCUSSION THERE WILL BE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. CARMAX OUT ALMOST 3% NOW, A BEAT. ALSO, PLANS TO RESUME SHARE PURCHASES IN THE THIRD QUARTER, AND THAT IS CHEERING INVESTORS. SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS GETTING A MASSIVE -- TO ELABORATE ON WHAT COULD BE A PROMISING NEW CANCER MEDICINE. NAVITAS UP 11.5% IN THE MARKET. THIS IS YOUR MACRO PICTURE. TWO MORE TRADING DAYS LEFT IN SEPTEMBER. AFTER YESTERDAY'S SELLOFF, WE MIGHT BE SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A TURNAROUND TODAY. AT LEAST FUTURES ARE FRACTIONALLY GREEN NOW. TWO YEAR YIELD CREEPING EVER HIGHER, BUT IT IS JUST UP AT 4.94, AND BRENT CRUDE TO BE ELEVATED.